TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116950
Played Sep 12Finished
Jan Marhol
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
71111131210510––
Filip Kubos
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Kubos to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Marhol above · Filip Kubos below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-10
Point 79 set 4, 5-10 — our read held Filip Kubos at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Jan Marhol 7–6 Filip Kubos Filip Kubos has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:17What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kubos
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marhol 1490 vs Kubos 1583
Kubos
Correct
both rated, 93 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marhol 40% vs Kubos 100%
Kubos
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marhol 40% vs Kubos 60%
Kubos
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Marhol +1 · Kubos +5
Kubos
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kubos) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kubos form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarhol 2.00 / Kubos 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Kubos)+0.8pp
Setka Cup · #13116950
Marhol2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 20 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back29% 7 of 24
Down 0–2, comes back25% 2 of 8
Kubos1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite58% won 74 of 127
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it72% 56 of 78
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarhol5wins
AwayKubos5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarhol100%4 of 4
AwayKubos83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marhol4Kubos6n = 10Kubos took 6 of 10
S2Marhol4Kubos6n = 10Kubos took 6 of 10
S3Marhol5Kubos5n = 10split evenly
S4Marhol4Kubos4n = 8split evenly
S5Marhol3Kubos2n = 5Marhol took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarholKubosM − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.541.0−1.5per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarholKubosBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 240 vs 369 / 71851.3%51.4%123 / 240 vs 369 / 718Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KubosMarhol 2.00/Kubos 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Kubos · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kubos won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 25 · 12:58J. Marhol216870F. Kubos331111113
WAug 25 · 09:30J. Marhol531111155113F. Kubos5299171162
WAug 21 · 06:45J. Marhol47115119113F. Kubos4471181172
LMay 10 · 17:09J. Marhol366101281F. Kubos44111210113
WMay 10 · 16:00J. Marhol49791111113F. Kubos4311116692
LMay 9 · 16:18J. Marhol4291161152F. Kubos45119113113
WMay 9 · 13:45J. Marhol4111115143F. Kubos386911121
LMar 2 · 09:28J. Marhol239860F. Kubos331111113
WMar 2 · 08:00J. Marhol3611311113F. Kubos27311851
LMar 1 · 19:30J. Marhol47101111782F. Kubos51128911113
J. Marhol10
WSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122LSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113LAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132WAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113LAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870WAug 25 · 11:30J. Marhol1.671311812113O. Plyska2.10117111432LAug 25 · 10:30J. Marhol1.5791111462J. Hanacek2.25118511113
F. Kubos10
WSep 5 · 16:59F. Kubos1.8011911113S. Kalensky1.91311891WSep 5 · 16:00F. Kubos1.801111103J. Hanacek1.915870WSep 5 · 14:30L. Hendrych1.578890F. Kubos2.251111113WSep 5 · 14:00S. Kalensky1.731181051F. Kubos2.008111293WSep 3 · 20:43F. Kubos2.50119119113M. Cizek1.5091181182LSep 3 · 20:00S. Kalensky1.73111139113F. Kubos2.0069111142LSep 3 · 19:00M. Cizek1.441011118113F. Kubos2.6312971152LSep 3 · 17:30J. Snr1.73871111113F. Kubos2.0011118572WAug 29 · 08:54T. Bertho1.9114911111F. Kubos1.8016119133WAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870
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