TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116969
Played Sep 12Finished
Jan Marhol
Home
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
11651191178––
Josef Hanacek
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:15 and never touched — 63.7% is still 63.7%
Graded at full timeJan Marhol to win
63.7%
63.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJan Marhol above · Josef Hanacek below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 7-8
Point 68 set 4, 7-8 — our read held Jan Marhol at 63.7%
68 points played in total.
H2H Jan Marhol 6–4 Josef Hanacek Josef Hanacek has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:15What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Marhol
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Marhol
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Marhol 1482 vs Hanacek 1368
Marhol
Wrong
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Marhol 40% vs Hanacek 60%
Hanacek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Marhol 40% vs Hanacek 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Marhol -1 · Hanacek +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Marhol)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hanacek form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMarhol 1.50 / Hanacek 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Marhol)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13116969
Marhol1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 38 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it75% 12 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it72% 23 of 32
Hanacek2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 55 of 120
Down 0–1, comes back30% 19 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMarhol6wins
AwayHanacek4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMarhol leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMarhol71.4%5 of 7
AwayHanacek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Marhol7Hanacek3n = 10Marhol took 7 of 10
S2Marhol5Hanacek5n = 10split evenly
S3Marhol8Hanacek2n = 10Marhol took 8 of 10
S4Marhol4Hanacek3n = 7Marhol took 4 of 7
S5Marhol0Hanacek3n = 3Hanacek took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMarholHanacekM − HBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.538.3+2.2per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMarholHanacekBasisWin rate · lifetime123 / 241 vs 228 / 44651%51.1%123 / 241 vs 228 / 446Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MarholMarhol 1.50/Hanacek 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.7%
Marhol · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hanacek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 12:23J. Marhol381213133J. Hanacek321011110
LSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol52121211982J. Hanacek531014711113
LAug 25 · 10:30J. Marhol4191111462J. Hanacek46118511113
LAug 16 · 16:45J. Marhol1945100J. Hanacek341111123
WAug 16 · 13:15J. Marhol47111114113J. Hanacek411381281
WJun 19 · 21:08J. Marhol45131011113J. Hanacek351112571
WJun 19 · 17:30J. Marhol4113711103J. Hanacek371111871
LJun 7 · 15:30J. Marhol491161110112J. Hanacek47811312133
WFeb 14 · 21:45J. Marhol331111113J. Hanacek247890
WFeb 14 · 20:30J. Marhol4011116123J. Hanacek347611101
J. Marhol10
LSep 12 · 13:30J. Marhol2.007111251F. Kubos1.73111310103WSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133LSep 3 · 11:15J. Marhol2.00812521M. Vana1.73111011113WSep 3 · 10:15J. Marhol1.6110121112143O. Plyska2.201214910122LSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113LAug 26 · 17:00J. Marhol1.83119581P. Abraham1.8351111113LAug 26 · 16:00P. Abraham1.91114117113J. Marhol1.8061141132WAug 26 · 15:00F. Schmidtmayer2.20116551J. Marhol1.6161111113LAug 25 · 12:58F. Kubos2.101111113J. Marhol1.676870WAug 25 · 11:30J. Marhol1.671311812113O. Plyska2.10117111432
J. Hanacek10
LSep 12 · 14:00O. Karpisek1.5771211893J. Hanacek2.25111091172WSep 11 · 13:09A. Dvoracek1.8071361982J. Hanacek1.9111111117113LSep 11 · 12:00J. Hanacek1.911013141182A. Dvoracek1.801211166113WSep 11 · 10:30M. Melisek2.107101191J. Hanacek1.6711126113WSep 11 · 10:00F. Schmidtmayer1.61811101132J. Hanacek2.20119126113LSep 9 · 20:39M. Vana1.50111110113J. Hanacek2.50371281LSep 9 · 19:30O. Karpisek1.73311513113J. Hanacek2.00116111152WSep 9 · 19:00J. Hanacek2.50115911113M. Vana1.5081111672LSep 3 · 12:23J. Hanacek2.201011110J. Marhol1.611213133WSep 3 · 09:15J. Marhol1.57121211982J. Hanacek2.251014711113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.