TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121756
Played Sep 12Finished
David Sabuka
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114112112––––
Jan Mares
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Jan Mares below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 41 set 3, 11-2
41 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 0–1 Jan Mares David Sabuka has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Mares beat Sabuka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mares)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mares form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 1.91 / Mares 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mares)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13121756
Sabuka1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 30 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back16% 11 of 70
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 39
Mares1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeSabuka0wins
AwayMares1wins
Mares leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricSabukaMaresS − MBasisWins01−1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match38.036.0+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaMaresBasisWin rate · lifetime243 / 516 vs 50 / 12647.1%39.7%243 / 516 vs 50 / 126Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.536.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MaresSabuka 1.91/Mares 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mares · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
LSep 12 · 18:30D. Sabuka3811111151J. Mares363131373
D. Sabuka10
LSep 12 · 20:00D. Sabuka2.00681171J. Jnr1.7311118113LSep 12 · 18:30J. Mares2.383131373D. Sabuka1.5311111151WSep 12 · 18:00J. Seeman2.00123112132D. Sabuka1.7310111110153WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113LAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141LAug 31 · 11:00D. Sabuka1.678117111J. Seeman2.1011711133
J. Mares10
LSep 12 · 19:30J. Mares2.7514280J. Seeman1.401611113WSep 12 · 18:30J. Mares2.383131373D. Sabuka1.5311111151LSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LAug 2 · 20:33V. Coubal1.731111113J. Mares2.008870LAug 2 · 19:30T. Stejskal1.361114113J. Mares3.0051220LAug 2 · 19:00J. Mares3.50961131P. Moulis1.2811116103WAug 2 · 18:00J. Mares2.251111119113V. Coubal1.5713971182LJul 28 · 20:38J. Mares2.10311751V. Coubal1.6711711113LJul 28 · 19:30V. Coubal1.73611119113J. Mares2.0011841152LJul 28 · 19:00J. Mares3.00115641M. Cmil1.3691111113
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