TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13115001
Played Sep 12Finished
Adam Dosz
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119118911117––
Kacper Petas
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:56 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Dosz to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Dosz above · Kacper Petas below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 77 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Adam Dosz at 56.2%
77 points played in total.
H2H Adam Dosz 8–7 Kacper Petas Kacper Petas has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:56What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dosz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-7 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dosz 1947 vs Petas 1896
Dosz
Correct
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dosz 60% vs Petas 80%
Petas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dosz 50% vs Petas 70%
Petas
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dosz +1 · Petas +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Dosz) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petas form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDosz 1.53 / Petas 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Dosz)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13115001
Dosz1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 77 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it88% 49 of 56
Petas2.38
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 131 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back18% 25 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDosz6wins
AwayPetas4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDosz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDosz80%4 of 5
AwayPetas60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dosz5Petas5n = 10split evenly
S2Dosz7Petas3n = 10Dosz took 7 of 10
S3Dosz6Petas4n = 10Dosz took 6 of 10
S4Dosz3Petas4n = 7Petas took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDoszPetasD − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.136.1+2.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDoszPetasBasisWin rate · lifetime178 / 308 vs 705 / 133357.8%52.9%178 / 308 vs 705 / 1333Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DoszDosz 1.53/Petas 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Dosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 04:30A. Dosz—912771K. Petas—111011113
WMar 23 · 07:15A. Dosz—117116133K. Petas—611811112
WFeb 20 · 08:50A. Dosz—11124113K. Petas—5101181
LFeb 19 · 13:50A. Dosz—791461K. Petas—111112103
WFeb 19 · 06:25A. Dosz—1111113K. Petas—3970
WAug 31 · 13:15A. Dosz—101111123K. Petas—1237101
WAug 31 · 04:20A. Dosz—71111133K. Petas—1196111
LAug 30 · 10:00A. Dosz—111171572K. Petas—861117113
LAug 30 · 09:10A. Dosz—8490K. Petas—1111113
WAug 29 · 15:10A. Dosz—1111113K. Petas—7840
A. Dosz10
WSep 12 · 09:40A. Dosz1.5313118133A. Witkowski2.3811711111LSep 12 · 08:05J. Braun2.631111113A. Dosz1.449730WSep 12 · 07:20A. Witkowski2.2511711892A. Dosz1.57711911113WSep 12 · 05:15G. Adamiak2.758780A. Dosz1.401111113LSep 12 · 04:30K. Petas2.10111011113A. Dosz1.67912771WSep 12 · 03:00S. Dosz2.208101281A. Dosz1.61111210113WSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752LSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172LSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111
K. Petas10
WSep 12 · 09:20S. Dosz1.9178111352K. Petas1.801111811113LSep 12 · 07:45G. Adamiak3.5091111113K. Petas1.28115671WSep 12 · 06:55S. Dosz1.91127991K. Petas1.80101111113WSep 12 · 06:05K. Petas1.831115143A. Witkowski1.83813120WSep 12 · 04:30K. Petas2.10111011113A. Dosz1.67912771LSep 12 · 03:45J. Braun2.00611136113K. Petas1.73111111162WSep 1 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.731145111K. Petas2.0071111133WSep 1 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.61811571K. Petas2.2011511113WSep 1 · 12:05K. Petas1.50119116113K. Strowski2.5091161142LSep 1 · 10:25K. Petas1.50101110111K. Glazowski2.5012412133
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