TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114964
Played Sep 12Finished
Kacper Petas
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1191012117117––
Adam Dosz
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:48 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeAdam Dosz to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Adam Dosz below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 78 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Adam Dosz at 56.2%
78 points played in total.
H2H Kacper Petas 7–9 Adam Dosz Kacper Petas has won 7 of their 16 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dosz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-9 in 16
Dosz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 16, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1873 vs Dosz 1975
Dosz
Wrong
both rated, 102 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 60% vs Dosz 40%
Petas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 50% vs Dosz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas -1 · Dosz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Dosz) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dosz form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 2.10 / Dosz 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Dosz)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13114964
Petas2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 131 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back18% 25 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 65
Dosz1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 77 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it88% 49 of 56
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas4wins
AwayDosz6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDosz leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetas60%3 of 5
AwayDosz80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas5Dosz5n = 10split evenly
S2Petas3Dosz7n = 10Dosz took 7 of 10
S3Petas5Dosz5n = 10split evenly
S4Petas4Dosz4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasDoszP − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.739.0−1.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasDoszBasisWin rate · lifetime706 / 1333 vs 182 / 31253%58.3%706 / 1333 vs 182 / 312Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DoszPetas 2.10/Dosz 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Dosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Petas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 10:50K. Petas35981171A. Dosz4211119113
WSep 12 · 04:30K. Petas43111011113A. Dosz35912771
LMar 23 · 07:15K. Petas47611811112A. Dosz48117116133
LFeb 20 · 08:50K. Petas345101181A. Dosz3811124113
WFeb 19 · 13:50K. Petas44111112103A. Dosz36791461
LFeb 19 · 06:25K. Petas193970A. Dosz331111113
LAug 31 · 13:15K. Petas321237101A. Dosz44101111123
LAug 31 · 04:20K. Petas371196111A. Dosz4271111133
WAug 30 · 10:00K. Petas53861117113A. Dosz51111171572
WAug 30 · 09:10K. Petas331111113A. Dosz218490
K. Petas10
LSep 13 · 05:15A. Witkowski1.83111011113K. Petas1.83812781WSep 13 · 04:30S. Dosz2.008660K. Petas1.731111113WSep 13 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.758830K. Petas1.251111113LSep 12 · 14:35J. Braun2.101111113K. Petas1.675820WSep 12 · 13:20K. Petas1.251111113G. Adamiak3.754570LSep 12 · 12:05A. Witkowski1.6711118113K. Petas2.10891111LSep 12 · 10:50A. Dosz1.5311119113K. Petas2.38981171WSep 12 · 09:20S. Dosz1.9178111352K. Petas1.801111811113LSep 12 · 07:45G. Adamiak3.5091111113K. Petas1.28115671WSep 12 · 06:55S. Dosz1.91127991K. Petas1.80101111113
A. Dosz10
WSep 13 · 05:40G. Adamiak3.0069111172A. Dosz1.36111176113WSep 13 · 04:55A. Dosz1.6181111113J. Zandecki2.20115861LSep 13 · 03:45A. Dosz1.80121161172S. Dosz1.91149119113WSep 12 · 14:10A. Dosz1.4011118113G. Adamiak2.75951151WSep 12 · 12:30S. Dosz1.9141171192A. Dosz1.80118119113WSep 12 · 11:40J. Braun2.7583130A. Dosz1.401111153WSep 12 · 10:50A. Dosz1.5311119113K. Petas2.38981171WSep 12 · 09:40A. Dosz1.5313118133A. Witkowski2.3811711111LSep 12 · 08:05J. Braun2.631111113A. Dosz1.449730WSep 12 · 07:20A. Witkowski2.2511711892A. Dosz1.57711911113
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