TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114881
Played Sep 12Finished
Kacper Petas
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114115117––––
Grzegorz Adamiak
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:33 and never touched — 76.6% is still 76.6%
Graded at full timeKacper Petas to win
76.6%
76.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKacper Petas above · Grzegorz Adamiak below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 10-7
Point 48 set 3, 10-7 — our read held Kacper Petas at 76.6%
48 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Kacper Petas 48–14 Grzegorz Adamiak Grzegorz Adamiak has won 14 of their 62 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Adamiak beat Petas 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Petas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-14 in 62
Petas
Correct
gap of 34 in 62, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Petas 1865 vs Adamiak 1776
Petas
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Petas 40% vs Adamiak 60%
Adamiak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Petas 60% vs Adamiak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Petas -2 · Adamiak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Petas) · live re-read · sealed at 77% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamiak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPetas 1.25 / Adamiak 3.75
Signal prob.79% / 22%
Edge (Petas)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13114881
Petas1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 177 of 293
Up 2–0, closes it94% 97 of 103
Up 1–0, closes it73% 137 of 187
Adamiak3.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 65 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back14% 20 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePetas9wins
AwayAdamiak1wins
Petas leads 9–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePetas90%9 of 10
AwayAdamiakn = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Petas10Adamiak0n = 10Petas took 10 of 10
S2Petas8Adamiak2n = 10Petas took 8 of 10
S3Petas6Adamiak4n = 10Petas took 6 of 10
S4Petas4Adamiak1n = 5Petas took 4 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPetasAdamiakP − ABasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set100+10of 10Avg pointsper match36.426.7+9.7per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPetasAdamiakBasisWin rate · lifetime705 / 1333 vs 335 / 76452.9%43.9%705 / 1333 vs 335 / 764Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.835.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PetasPetas 1.25/Adamiak 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78.5%
Petas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Petas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 07:45K. Petas29115671G. Adamiak4291111113
WJul 29 · 10:50K. Petas331111113G. Adamiak228680
WJul 29 · 03:25K. Petas341211113G. Adamiak2110740
WJun 14 · 12:25K. Petas4111118113G. Adamiak23451131
WJun 14 · 04:00K. Petas45111013113G. Adamiak387121181
WJun 13 · 15:35K. Petas3911116113G. Adamiak23261141
WJun 13 · 04:40K. Petas331111113G. Adamiak196490
WMay 17 · 06:15K. Petas331111113G. Adamiak178360
WMay 16 · 12:50K. Petas4412129113G. Adamiak4010101191
WMay 16 · 07:40K. Petas331111113G. Adamiak226970
K. Petas10
LSep 12 · 12:05A. Witkowski1.6711118113K. Petas2.10891111LSep 12 · 10:50A. Dosz1.5311119113K. Petas2.38981171WSep 12 · 09:20S. Dosz1.9178111352K. Petas1.801111811113LSep 12 · 07:45G. Adamiak3.5091111113K. Petas1.28115671WSep 12 · 06:55S. Dosz1.91127991K. Petas1.80101111113WSep 12 · 06:05K. Petas1.831115143A. Witkowski1.83813120WSep 12 · 04:30K. Petas2.10111011113A. Dosz1.67912771LSep 12 · 03:45J. Braun2.00611136113K. Petas1.73111111162WSep 1 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.731145111K. Petas2.0071111133WSep 1 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.61811571K. Petas2.2011511113
G. Adamiak10
LSep 12 · 11:15S. Dosz1.331081111113G. Adamiak3.2512118762WSep 12 · 10:25A. Witkowski1.40871111102G. Adamiak2.75111143123WSep 12 · 09:00J. Braun1.531110791G. Adamiak2.3891211113WSep 12 · 07:45G. Adamiak3.5091111113K. Petas1.28115671LSep 12 · 06:30G. Adamiak2.382580J. Braun1.531111113LSep 12 · 05:15G. Adamiak2.758780A. Dosz1.401111113LSep 12 · 04:10S. Dosz1.33112511113G. Adamiak3.2561111482LSep 12 · 03:25G. Adamiak3.25118128142A. Witkowski1.339111011163WSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662WSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752
Upcoming Matches
K. Petas
G. Adamiak
Sep 13 · 03:00G. Adamiak3.75K. Petas1.25—Sep 13 · 04:10G. Adamiak2.75A. Witkowski1.40—Sep 13 · 05:40G. Adamiak2.75A. Dosz1.40—Sep 13 · 06:55G. Adamiak3.00S. Dosz1.36—Sep 13 · 08:30G. Adamiak2.50J. Zandecki1.50—Sep 13 · 10:00G. Adamiak2.75A. Dosz1.40—Sep 13 · 12:30G. Adamiak2.50J. Zandecki1.50—Sep 13 · 13:45G. Adamiak2.75M. Jadczyk1.40—
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.