TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114683
Played Sep 12Finished
Antoni Witkowski
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118119811111––
Kacper Petas
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAntoni Witkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAntoni Witkowski above · Kacper Petas below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-1
Point 70 set 4, 11-1 — our read held Antoni Witkowski at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Antoni Witkowski 20–14 Kacper Petas Kacper Petas has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 6h before this match
Petas beat Witkowski 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:52What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Witkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-14 in 34
Witkowski
Correct
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Witkowski 1859 vs Petas 1877
Petas
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Witkowski 20% vs Petas 60%
Petas
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Witkowski 30% vs Petas 70%
Petas
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Witkowski -2 · Petas -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Witkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Petas form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWitkowski 1.67 / Petas 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Witkowski)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13114683
Witkowski1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 78 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it86% 53 of 62
Petas2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog46% won 131 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back18% 25 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWitkowski6wins
AwayPetas4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderWitkowski leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWitkowski85.7%6 of 7
AwayPetas100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Witkowski7Petas3n = 10Witkowski took 7 of 10
S2Witkowski2Petas8n = 10Petas took 8 of 10
S3Witkowski5Petas5n = 10split evenly
S4Witkowski5Petas3n = 8Witkowski took 5 of 8
S5Witkowski4Petas2n = 6Witkowski took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricWitkowskiPetasW − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.341.8+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWitkowskiPetasBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 377 vs 705 / 133358.1%52.9%219 / 377 vs 705 / 1333Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiWitkowski 1.67/Petas 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Witkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 06:05A. Witkowski33813120K. Petas401115143
WJun 12 · 14:30A. Witkowski46111158113K. Petas4479111162
WJun 12 · 05:15A. Witkowski43111011113K. Petas34912761
LJun 4 · 10:00A. Witkowski3811391142K. Petas47811116113
WMay 9 · 12:00A. Witkowski46115118113K. Petas4351181182
LMay 9 · 08:50A. Witkowski341171151K. Petas4113116113
WMay 8 · 12:25A. Witkowski45115711113K. Petas4291111742
WMay 8 · 03:00A. Witkowski371115113K. Petas2971390
WApr 14 · 10:25A. Witkowski531210911113K. Petas46101211762
LApr 14 · 04:20A. Witkowski48513111182K. Petas52111578113
A. Witkowski10
WSep 12 · 13:45S. Dosz2.251178111A. Witkowski1.5791111133WSep 12 · 12:55J. Braun2.2089111182A. Witkowski1.61111169113LSep 12 · 10:25A. Witkowski1.40871111102G. Adamiak2.75111143123LSep 12 · 09:40A. Dosz1.5313118133A. Witkowski2.3811711111WSep 12 · 08:30S. Dosz2.63541161A. Witkowski1.4411118113LSep 12 · 07:20A. Witkowski2.2511711892A. Dosz1.57711911113LSep 12 · 06:05K. Petas1.831115143A. Witkowski1.83813120LSep 12 · 04:55J. Braun2.20111295113A. Witkowski1.61510111182WSep 12 · 03:25G. Adamiak3.25118128142A. Witkowski1.339111011163LJul 10 · 15:00A. Witkowski1.8391050M. Jadczyk1.831112113
K. Petas10
WSep 12 · 13:20K. Petas1.251111113G. Adamiak3.754570LSep 12 · 10:50A. Dosz1.5311119113K. Petas2.38981171WSep 12 · 09:20S. Dosz1.9178111352K. Petas1.801111811113LSep 12 · 07:45G. Adamiak3.5091111113K. Petas1.28115671WSep 12 · 06:55S. Dosz1.91127991K. Petas1.80101111113WSep 12 · 06:05K. Petas1.831115143A. Witkowski1.83813120WSep 12 · 04:30K. Petas2.10111011113A. Dosz1.67912771LSep 12 · 03:45J. Braun2.00611136113K. Petas1.73111111162WSep 1 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.731145111K. Petas2.0071111133WSep 1 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.61811571K. Petas2.2011511113
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