TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114848
Played Sep 12Finished
Slawomir Dosz
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1197118111113––
Antoni Witkowski
Away
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeAntoni Witkowski to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSlawomir Dosz above · Antoni Witkowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 4-4
Point 65 set 4, 4-4 — our read held Antoni Witkowski at 66.1%
65 points drawn · the score is 16 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Slawomir Dosz 4–11 Antoni Witkowski Slawomir Dosz has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Witkowski beat Dosz 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:24What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Witkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-11 in 15
Witkowski
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dosz 1837 vs Witkowski 1865
Witkowski
Correct
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dosz 20% vs Witkowski 60%
Witkowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dosz 20% vs Witkowski 40%
Witkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dosz -1 · Witkowski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Witkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 66% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dosz form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDosz 2.25 / Witkowski 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 61%
Edge (Witkowski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13114848
Dosz2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 17 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back23% 5 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back10% 1 of 10
Witkowski1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 78 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it86% 53 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDosz3wins
AwayWitkowski7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderWitkowski leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDosz40%2 of 5
AwayWitkowski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dosz5Witkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Dosz3Witkowski7n = 10Witkowski took 7 of 10
S3Dosz6Witkowski4n = 10Dosz took 6 of 10
S4Dosz2Witkowski5n = 7Witkowski took 5 of 7
S5Dosz1Witkowski2n = 3Witkowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDoszWitkowskiD − WBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.239.7−5.5per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDoszWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 144 vs 221 / 37943.8%58.3%63 / 144 vs 221 / 379Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.038.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiDosz 2.25/Witkowski 1.57
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.5%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Witkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 08:30S. Dosz26541161A. Witkowski4111118113
WMay 3 · 09:10S. Dosz361114113A. Witkowski2651290
WMay 2 · 10:00S. Dosz361212123A. Witkowski301010100
LMay 2 · 05:25S. Dosz34118871A. Witkowski4291111113
WMay 1 · 14:50S. Dosz452101111113A. Witkowski4311125692
LMay 1 · 09:35S. Dosz311141061A. Witkowski4391112113
LApr 15 · 12:25S. Dosz2183100A. Witkowski341111123
LApr 15 · 04:00S. Dosz4396111162A. Witkowski44111174113
LApr 14 · 10:00S. Dosz41111244102A. Witkowski528101111123
LApr 14 · 05:25S. Dosz29861141A. Witkowski4211119113
S. Dosz10
LSep 12 · 12:30S. Dosz1.9141171192A. Dosz1.80118119113WSep 12 · 11:15S. Dosz1.331081111113G. Adamiak3.2512118762LSep 12 · 10:00J. Braun2.0011119113S. Dosz1.73771151LSep 12 · 09:20S. Dosz1.9178111352K. Petas1.801111811113LSep 12 · 08:30S. Dosz2.63541161A. Witkowski1.4411118113LSep 12 · 06:55S. Dosz1.91127991K. Petas1.80101111113LSep 12 · 05:40S. Dosz1.804420J. Braun1.911111113WSep 12 · 04:10S. Dosz1.33112511113G. Adamiak3.2561111482LSep 12 · 03:00S. Dosz2.208101281A. Dosz1.61111210113LSep 4 · 14:35A. Daniel3.0011611113S. Dosz1.33411681
A. Witkowski10
WSep 12 · 12:55J. Braun2.2089111182A. Witkowski1.61111169113WSep 12 · 12:05A. Witkowski1.6711118113K. Petas2.10891111LSep 12 · 10:25A. Witkowski1.40871111102G. Adamiak2.75111143123LSep 12 · 09:40A. Dosz1.5313118133A. Witkowski2.3811711111WSep 12 · 08:30S. Dosz2.63541161A. Witkowski1.4411118113LSep 12 · 07:20A. Witkowski2.2511711892A. Dosz1.57711911113LSep 12 · 06:05K. Petas1.831115143A. Witkowski1.83813120LSep 12 · 04:55J. Braun2.20111295113A. Witkowski1.61510111182WSep 12 · 03:25G. Adamiak3.25118128142A. Witkowski1.339111011163LJul 10 · 15:00A. Witkowski1.8391050M. Jadczyk1.831112113
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