TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114961
Played Sep 12Finished
Adam Dosz
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13111178111311––
Antoni Witkowski
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:45 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeAdam Dosz to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingAdam Dosz above · Antoni Witkowski below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 13-11
Point 85 set 4, 13-11 — our read held Adam Dosz at 58.9%
85 points played in total.
H2H Adam Dosz 6–9 Antoni Witkowski Adam Dosz has won 6 of their 15 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Dosz beat Witkowski 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:45What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Dosz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-9 in 15
Witkowski
Wrong
gap of 3 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dosz 1937 vs Witkowski 1882
Dosz
Correct
both rated, 54 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dosz 60% vs Witkowski 40%
Dosz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dosz 50% vs Witkowski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dosz -1 · Witkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Dosz) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDosz 1.53 / Witkowski 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Dosz)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13114961
Dosz1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite65% won 77 of 119
Up 2–0, closes it100% 35 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it88% 49 of 56
Witkowski2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 20 of 45
Down 0–1, comes back22% 5 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 13
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDosz5wins
AwayWitkowski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDosz60%3 of 5
AwayWitkowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dosz5Witkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Dosz4Witkowski6n = 10Witkowski took 6 of 10
S3Dosz5Witkowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Dosz4Witkowski5n = 9Witkowski took 5 of 9
S5Dosz2Witkowski1n = 3Dosz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDoszWitkowskiD − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.640.7−1.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDoszWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime177 / 307 vs 219 / 37557.7%58.4%177 / 307 vs 219 / 375Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DoszDosz 1.53/Witkowski 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Dosz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dosz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 07:20A. Dosz—711911113A. Witkowski—11711892
LMay 3 · 11:10A. Dosz—116781A. Witkowski—71111113
LMay 3 · 06:40A. Dosz—12811972A. Witkowski—1011711113
LMay 2 · 14:05A. Dosz—981161A. Witkowski—11118113
WMay 2 · 05:50A. Dosz—11116123A. Witkowski—8611101
WMar 20 · 15:05A. Dosz—111113113A. Witkowski—951561
LMar 20 · 05:50A. Dosz—871191A. Witkowski—11117113
LFeb 20 · 15:30A. Dosz—69100A. Witkowski—1111123
WFeb 20 · 05:25A. Dosz—11611113A. Witkowski—711991
WFeb 19 · 16:35A. Dosz—311119153A. Witkowski—118711132
A. Dosz10
WSep 12 · 10:50A. Dosz1.5311119113K. Petas2.38981171LSep 12 · 08:05J. Braun2.631111113A. Dosz1.449730WSep 12 · 07:20A. Witkowski2.2511711892A. Dosz1.57711911113WSep 12 · 05:15G. Adamiak2.758780A. Dosz1.401111113LSep 12 · 04:30K. Petas2.10111011113A. Dosz1.67912771WSep 12 · 03:00S. Dosz2.208101281A. Dosz1.61111210113WSep 4 · 15:25D. Michna2.10136121182A. Dosz1.671111149113LSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752LSep 4 · 12:30A. Wiecek1.91111459113A. Dosz1.80912111172LSep 4 · 11:40M. Jadczyk1.8311912133A. Dosz1.8381110111
A. Witkowski10
LSep 12 · 10:25A. Witkowski1.40871111102G. Adamiak2.75111143123WSep 12 · 08:30S. Dosz2.63541161A. Witkowski1.4411118113LSep 12 · 07:20A. Witkowski2.2511711892A. Dosz1.57711911113LSep 12 · 06:05K. Petas1.831115143A. Witkowski1.83813120LSep 12 · 04:55J. Braun2.20111295113A. Witkowski1.61510111182WSep 12 · 03:25G. Adamiak3.25118128142A. Witkowski1.339111011163LJul 10 · 15:00A. Witkowski1.8391050M. Jadczyk1.831112113WJul 10 · 13:45A. Witkowski1.911211108113P. Klos1.80106121142LJul 10 · 12:30A. Witkowski1.83511281D. Wederlich1.8311911113WJul 10 · 11:15M. Olejnik1.916940A. Witkowski1.801111113
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