TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114729
Played Sep 12Finished
Antoni Witkowski
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8117111141131012
Grzegorz Adamiak
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:05 and never touched — 72.5% is still 72.5%
Graded at full timeAntoni Witkowski to win
72.5%
72.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAntoni Witkowski above · Grzegorz Adamiak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 88 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Antoni Witkowski at 72.5%
88 points played in total.
H2H Antoni Witkowski 20–5 Grzegorz Adamiak Grzegorz Adamiak has won 5 of their 25 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:05What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Witkowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-5 in 25
Witkowski
Wrong
gap of 15 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Witkowski 1872 vs Adamiak 1793
Witkowski
Wrong
both rated, 79 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Witkowski 20% vs Adamiak 40%
Adamiak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Witkowski 40% vs Adamiak 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Witkowski -1 · Adamiak +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Witkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWitkowski 1.40 / Adamiak 2.75
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Witkowski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13114729
Witkowski1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 78 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it86% 53 of 62
Adamiak2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 65 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back14% 20 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWitkowski8wins
AwayAdamiak2wins
5 of 10 to a deciderWitkowski leads 8–2, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWitkowski83.3%5 of 6
AwayAdamiak25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Witkowski6Adamiak4n = 10Witkowski took 6 of 10
S2Witkowski7Adamiak3n = 10Witkowski took 7 of 10
S3Witkowski7Adamiak3n = 10Witkowski took 7 of 10
S4Witkowski5Adamiak2n = 7Witkowski took 5 of 7
S5Witkowski3Adamiak2n = 5Witkowski took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricWitkowskiAdamiakW − ABasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match43.938.3+5.6per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWitkowskiAdamiakBasisWin rate · lifetime219 / 376 vs 334 / 76258.2%43.8%219 / 376 vs 334 / 762Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiWitkowski 1.40/Adamiak 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.9%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adamiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 03:25A. Witkowski—9111011163G. Adamiak—118128142
LJul 9 · 05:40A. Witkowski—18711692G. Adamiak—1611911113
WMay 9 · 12:50A. Witkowski—1111113G. Adamiak—8660
WMay 9 · 07:40A. Witkowski—11116113G. Adamiak—771181
WMay 3 · 13:40A. Witkowski—1212113G. Adamiak—101080
WMay 3 · 09:35A. Witkowski—1611113G. Adamiak—14680
LMay 2 · 12:50A. Witkowski—910111132G. Adamiak—111258113
WFeb 1 · 11:25A. Witkowski—7111111113G. Adamiak—11651372
WFeb 1 · 09:00A. Witkowski—71111113G. Adamiak—118781
WJan 3 · 16:10A. Witkowski—119911113G. Adamiak—61111662
A. Witkowski10
LSep 12 · 09:40A. Dosz1.5313118133A. Witkowski2.3811711111WSep 12 · 08:30S. Dosz2.63541161A. Witkowski1.4411118113LSep 12 · 07:20A. Witkowski2.2511711892A. Dosz1.57711911113LSep 12 · 06:05K. Petas1.831115143A. Witkowski1.83813120LSep 12 · 04:55J. Braun2.20111295113A. Witkowski1.61510111182WSep 12 · 03:25G. Adamiak3.25118128142A. Witkowski1.339111011163LJul 10 · 15:00A. Witkowski1.8391050M. Jadczyk1.831112113WJul 10 · 13:45A. Witkowski1.911211108113P. Klos1.80106121142LJul 10 · 12:30A. Witkowski1.83511281D. Wederlich1.8311911113WJul 10 · 11:15M. Olejnik1.916940A. Witkowski1.801111113
G. Adamiak10
WSep 12 · 09:00J. Braun1.531110791G. Adamiak2.3891211113WSep 12 · 07:45G. Adamiak3.5091111113K. Petas1.28115671LSep 12 · 06:30G. Adamiak2.382580J. Braun1.531111113LSep 12 · 05:15G. Adamiak2.758780A. Dosz1.401111113LSep 12 · 04:10S. Dosz1.33112511113G. Adamiak3.2561111482LSep 12 · 03:25G. Adamiak3.25118128142A. Witkowski1.339111011163WSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662WSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752LSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621
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