TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114693
Played Sep 12Finished
Josef Braun
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191012711911––
Grzegorz Adamiak
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:07 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeJosef Braun to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Braun above · Grzegorz Adamiak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 80 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Josef Braun at 59.6%
80 points played in total.
H2H Josef Braun 22–7 Grzegorz Adamiak Grzegorz Adamiak has won 7 of their 29 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Braun beat Adamiak 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:07What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Braun
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
22-7 in 29
Braun
Wrong
gap of 15 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Braun 1904 vs Adamiak 1776
Braun
Wrong
both rated, 129 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Braun 100% vs Adamiak 20%
Braun
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Braun 100% vs Adamiak 30%
Braun
Wrong
70pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Braun +5 · Adamiak +1
Braun
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Braun) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBraun 1.53 / Adamiak 2.38
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Braun)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13114693
Braun1.53
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 148 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it91% 80 of 88
Up 1–0, closes it75% 113 of 151
Adamiak2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog29% won 65 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back14% 20 of 142
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBraun7wins
AwayAdamiak3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBraun leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBraun100%6 of 6
AwayAdamiak75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Braun6Adamiak4n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S2Braun5Adamiak5n = 10split evenly
S3Braun6Adamiak4n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S4Braun4Adamiak3n = 7Braun took 4 of 7
S5Braun3Adamiak1n = 4Braun took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBraunAdamiakB − ABasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.936.2+2.7per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBraunAdamiakBasisWin rate · lifetime516 / 980 vs 333 / 76152.7%43.8%516 / 980 vs 333 / 761Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.935.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
BraunBraun 1.53/Adamiak 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.2%
Braun · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Adamiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 06:30J. Braun—1111113G. Adamiak—2580
WSep 6 · 09:20J. Braun—11911113G. Adamiak—911961
LJul 27 · 09:20J. Braun—7370G. Adamiak—1111113
LJul 27 · 04:55J. Braun—8118101G. Adamiak—11911123
WJul 16 · 14:35J. Braun—1011911113G. Adamiak—12211732
WJul 16 · 06:30J. Braun—114115113G. Adamiak—61191192
WJul 3 · 10:55J. Braun—119111143G. Adamiak—911117122
WJul 3 · 04:30J. Braun—1111113G. Adamiak—6570
LJun 6 · 14:50J. Braun—121111272G. Adamiak—147911113
WJun 6 · 09:35J. Braun—13911113G. Adamiak—1111491
J. Braun10
WSep 12 · 08:05J. Braun2.631111113A. Dosz1.449730WSep 12 · 06:30G. Adamiak2.382580J. Braun1.531111113WSep 12 · 05:40S. Dosz1.804420J. Braun1.911111113WSep 12 · 04:55J. Braun2.20111295113A. Witkowski1.61510111182WSep 12 · 03:45J. Braun2.00611136113K. Petas1.73111111162WSep 9 · 20:05M. Olbrycht3.405890J. Braun1.301111113WSep 9 · 19:15J. Krawczyk6.0011760J. Braun1.111311113WSep 9 · 17:20A. Daniel2.201341031J. Braun1.61111112113WSep 9 · 16:30M. Benes1.837118121J. Braun1.8311811143WSep 9 · 15:00J. Chmielowski4.337620J. Braun1.201111113
G. Adamiak10
WSep 12 · 07:45G. Adamiak3.5091111113K. Petas1.28115671LSep 12 · 06:30G. Adamiak2.382580J. Braun1.531111113LSep 12 · 05:15G. Adamiak2.758780A. Dosz1.401111113LSep 12 · 04:10S. Dosz1.33112511113G. Adamiak3.2561111482LSep 12 · 03:25G. Adamiak3.25118128142A. Witkowski1.339111011163WSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662WSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752LSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621LSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113
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