Josef Braun vs Kacper Petas 3-2

TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series

TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114866

Played Sep 12Finished

Josef Braun

Home

2.00

At publish

Won last 5

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 5

Final

3 – 2

Set by set

6111111311611116

Kacper Petas

Away

1.73

At publish

Won last 3

Form at publish

6–4Last 10Won last 3

The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%

Graded at full time

Kacper Petas to win

54.0%

Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.

Read

Wrong

not sent

How it is goingJosef Braun above · Kacper Petas below

Set 1 · 6-11

Set 2 · 11-1

Set 3 · 13-11

Set 4 · 6-11

Set 5 · 11-6

Point 87 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Kacper Petas at 54.0%

87 points played in total.

H2H Josef Braun 25–33 Kacper Petas Josef Braun has won 25 of their 58 meetings.

Last 10 · 4–6Same sideHead to head

The pickNothing sent

Sealed 12:24

What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent

SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way

Market

1.73 (54%)

Petas

Wrong

no bar to clear — a priced side always votes

H2H

25-33 in 58

Petas

Wrong

gap of 8 in 58, over the gap of 2

Rating (G2)

Braun 1825 vs Petas 1859

Petas

Wrong

both rated, 35 points apart — no bar to clear

Form (L5)

Braun 100% vs Petas 80%

Braun

Correct

20pp gap, over the 15pp bar

Form (L10)

Braun 70% vs Petas 60%

—

Too close

10pp gap, under the 15pp bar

Streak

Braun +5 · Petas +3

—

Too close

neither holds a run of 3 on their own

Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.

This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.

3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.

Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Petas) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Petas form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsBraun 2.00 / Petas 1.73

Signal prob.43% / 57%

Edge (Petas)+3.2pp

TT Elite Series · #13114866

Braun2.00

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

Won last 5

oldest → newest

60%takes the first set · 6 of 10

As underdog41% won 86 of 209

Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 112

Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 62

Petas1.73

60%won 6 of 10 · last 10

Won last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As favourite61% won 177 of 292

Up 2–0, closes it94% 97 of 103

Up 1–0, closes it74% 137 of 186

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeBraun4wins

AwayPetas6wins

2 of 10 to a deciderPetas leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeBraun50%2 of 4

AwayPetas66.7%4 of 6

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Braun4Petas6n = 10Petas took 6 of 10

S2Braun3Petas7n = 10Petas took 7 of 10

S3Braun3Petas7n = 10Petas took 7 of 10

S4Braun3Petas3n = 6split evenly

Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home110%

3–1Four sets, home110%

3–2Decider, home220%

2–3Decider, away00%

1–3Four sets, away330%

0–3Straight, away330%

These 10 meetings

MetricBraunPetasB − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match32.437.1−4.7per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricBraunPetasBasisWin rate · lifetime511 / 975 vs 716 / 136352.4%52.5%511 / 975 vs 716 / 1363Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.937.8per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Petas

Braun 2.00/Petas 1.73

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

56.9%

Petas · sealed before the serve

What happened

3–2

Braun won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

LJul 30 · 12:10J. Braun—911621K. Petas—11911113

LJul 30 · 05:40J. Braun—71070K. Petas—1112113

WJul 25 · 11:40J. Braun—1111133K. Petas—76110

LJul 25 · 08:05J. Braun—7860K. Petas—1111113

LJun 26 · 15:45J. Braun—119991K. Petas—41111113

LJun 26 · 03:45J. Braun—6680K. Petas—1111113

LJun 3 · 13:10J. Braun—116771K. Petas—71111113

WJun 3 · 05:00J. Braun—551111113K. Petas—11119662

WMay 27 · 03:55J. Braun—12117143K. Petas—10711121

WMay 17 · 04:20J. Braun—341111113K. Petas—11119772

J. Braun10

WSep 9 · 20:05M. Olbrycht3.405890J. Braun1.301111113 WSep 9 · 19:15J. Krawczyk6.0011760J. Braun1.111311113 WSep 9 · 17:20A. Daniel2.201341031J. Braun1.61111112113 WSep 9 · 16:30M. Benes1.837118121J. Braun1.8311811143 WSep 9 · 15:00J. Chmielowski4.337620J. Braun1.201111113 LSep 9 · 14:15J. Braun1.3586100K. Wisniewski2.801111123 WSep 9 · 12:35T. Spanik1.70115281J. Braun2.0081111113 LSep 9 · 11:45A. Daniel2.2561211123J. Braun1.5411105101 LSep 9 · 10:55J. Braun1.856911101M. Benes1.8011115123 WSep 9 · 09:45J. Braun1.54128611113J. Kuzmicz2.25101111792

K. Petas10

WSep 12 · 04:30K. Petas2.10111011113A. Dosz1.67912771 WSep 1 · 13:45J. Kosowski1.731145111K. Petas2.0071111133 WSep 1 · 12:55P. Cyrnek1.61811571K. Petas2.2011511113 WSep 1 · 12:05K. Petas1.50119116113K. Strowski2.5091161142 LSep 1 · 10:25K. Petas1.50101110111K. Glazowski2.5012412133 WSep 1 · 09:40K. Kolodziej1.671151271K. Petas2.10131110113 LSep 1 · 08:30J. Kosowski1.7311611113K. Petas2.00911881 WSep 1 · 07:20K. Petas1.501110118113J. Kuzmicz2.5081271162 LSep 1 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.61118911113K. Petas2.2081111342 LSep 1 · 04:55P. Cyrnek1.5711124113K. Petas2.258101191

Upcoming Matches

J. Braun

Sep 12 · 05:40J. Braun1.91S. Dosz1.80—Sep 12 · 06:30J. Braun1.53G. Adamiak2.38—Sep 12 · 08:05J. Braun2.63A. Dosz1.44—Sep 12 · 09:00J. Braun1.53G. Adamiak2.38—Sep 12 · 10:00J. Braun1.91S. Dosz1.80—Sep 12 · 11:40J. Braun2.63A. Dosz1.44—Sep 12 · 12:55J. Braun2.20A. Witkowski1.61—Sep 12 · 14:35J. Braun2.00K. Petas1.73—

K. Petas

Sep 12 · 06:05K. Petas1.83A. Witkowski1.83—Sep 12 · 06:55K. Petas1.80S. Dosz1.91—Sep 12 · 07:45K. Petas1.28G. Adamiak3.50—Sep 12 · 09:20K. Petas1.80S. Dosz1.91—Sep 12 · 10:50K. Petas2.10A. Dosz1.67—Sep 12 · 12:05K. Petas1.83A. Witkowski1.83—Sep 12 · 13:20K. Petas1.28G. Adamiak3.50—Sep 12 · 14:35K. Petas1.73J. Braun2.00—

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