TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13114689
Played Sep 12Finished
Josef Braun
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811911116119811
Antoni Witkowski
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:52 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeAntoni Witkowski to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Braun above · Antoni Witkowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 6-8
Point 90 set 5, 6-8 — our read held Antoni Witkowski at 58.5%
90 points drawn · the score is 5 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Josef Braun 9–9 Antoni Witkowski Dead even across their 18 meetings.
Last 10 · 6–4Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:52What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Witkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-9 in 18
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Braun 1902 vs Witkowski 1872
Braun
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Braun 60% vs Witkowski 40%
Braun
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Braun 80% vs Witkowski 40%
Braun
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Braun -1 · Witkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Witkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Witkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsBraun 2.20 / Witkowski 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Witkowski)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13114689
Braun2.20
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog41% won 87 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back24% 27 of 113
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 62
Witkowski1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 78 of 134
Up 2–0, closes it97% 35 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it86% 53 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeBraun6wins
AwayWitkowski4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderBraun leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeBraun62.5%5 of 8
AwayWitkowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Braun8Witkowski2n = 10Braun took 8 of 10
S2Braun5Witkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Braun6Witkowski4n = 10Braun took 6 of 10
S4Braun2Witkowski5n = 7Witkowski took 5 of 7
S5Braun2Witkowski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricBraunWitkowskiB − WBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match40.037.0+3.0per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricBraunWitkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime517 / 983 vs 220 / 37852.6%58.2%517 / 983 vs 220 / 378Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WitkowskiBraun 2.20/Witkowski 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Witkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Witkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 04:55J. Braun48111295113A. Witkowski45510111182
WJul 10 · 06:55J. Braun4071111113A. Witkowski34117791
LMay 7 · 13:15J. Braun4611911692A. Witkowski44511611113
WMar 26 · 16:35J. Braun3911511123A. Witkowski294114101
WMar 26 · 08:40J. Braun55111198163A. Witkowski50681111142
WMar 20 · 12:35J. Braun331111113A. Witkowski199460
WMar 20 · 08:25J. Braun371115113A. Witkowski2451360
LMar 2 · 12:10J. Braun44111011842A. Witkowski45812311113
LMar 2 · 07:40J. Braun173590A. Witkowski331111113
LFeb 1 · 14:15J. Braun41169881A. Witkowski47141111113
J. Braun10
LSep 12 · 11:40J. Braun2.7583130A. Dosz1.401111153WSep 12 · 10:00J. Braun2.0011119113S. Dosz1.73771151LSep 12 · 09:00J. Braun1.531110791G. Adamiak2.3891211113WSep 12 · 08:05J. Braun2.631111113A. Dosz1.449730WSep 12 · 06:30G. Adamiak2.382580J. Braun1.531111113WSep 12 · 05:40S. Dosz1.804420J. Braun1.911111113WSep 12 · 04:55J. Braun2.20111295113A. Witkowski1.61510111182WSep 12 · 03:45J. Braun2.00611136113K. Petas1.73111111162WSep 9 · 20:05M. Olbrycht3.405890J. Braun1.301111113WSep 9 · 19:15J. Krawczyk6.0011760J. Braun1.111311113
A. Witkowski10
WSep 12 · 13:45S. Dosz2.251178111A. Witkowski1.5791111133WSep 12 · 12:05A. Witkowski1.6711118113K. Petas2.10891111LSep 12 · 10:25A. Witkowski1.40871111102G. Adamiak2.75111143123LSep 12 · 09:40A. Dosz1.5313118133A. Witkowski2.3811711111WSep 12 · 08:30S. Dosz2.63541161A. Witkowski1.4411118113LSep 12 · 07:20A. Witkowski2.2511711892A. Dosz1.57711911113LSep 12 · 06:05K. Petas1.831115143A. Witkowski1.83813120LSep 12 · 04:55J. Braun2.20111295113A. Witkowski1.61510111182WSep 12 · 03:25G. Adamiak3.25118128142A. Witkowski1.339111011163LJul 10 · 15:00A. Witkowski1.8391050M. Jadczyk1.831112113
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