TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111267
Played Sep 12Finished
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711119911911––
Valentyn Lobas
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:43 and never touched — 59.4% is still 59.4%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
59.4%
59.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Valentyn Lobas below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 78 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 59.4%
78 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 10–19 Valentyn Lobas Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 10 of their 29 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-19 in 29
Lobas
Correct
gap of 9 in 29, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1630 vs Lobas 1681
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 40% vs Lobas 80%
Lobas
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 60% vs Lobas 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko +1 · Lobas +3
Lobas
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Lobas) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobas form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 2.38 / Lobas 1.53
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Lobas)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13111267
Hrynenko2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 156 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 185
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 97
Lobas1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 109 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it79% 88 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko5wins
AwayLobas5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko66.7%2 of 3
AwayLobas57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko3Lobas7n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S2Hrynenko7Lobas3n = 10Hrynenko took 7 of 10
S3Hrynenko4Lobas6n = 10Lobas took 6 of 10
S4Hrynenko3Lobas5n = 8Lobas took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoLobasH − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match35.936.8−0.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoLobasBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 902 vs 232 / 40346.8%57.6%422 / 902 vs 232 / 403Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasHrynenko 2.38/Lobas 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.4%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko—711991V. Lobas—11911113
LSep 6 · 01:35K. Hrynenko—4811121V. Lobas—11113143
LSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko—8850V. Lobas—1111113
WAug 30 · 24:05K. Hrynenko—11115133V. Lobas—4711111
LAug 29 · 02:05K. Hrynenko—511841V. Lobas—11311113
LAug 22 · 21:05K. Hrynenko—112851V. Lobas—61111113
WAug 21 · 22:05K. Hrynenko—41311113V. Lobas—1111941
WAug 15 · 21:35K. Hrynenko—1012115113V. Lobas—121081152
WAug 14 · 23:05K. Hrynenko—615812113V. Lobas—1113111042
WAug 2 · 01:35K. Hrynenko—1111113V. Lobas—3850
K. Hrynenko10
LSep 12 · 03:05Y. Krol1.6711614113K. Hrynenko2.106111281WSep 12 · 01:05K. Hrynenko1.6161111113O. Melashenko2.20118241LSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50711791D. Derevynskyi1.5011711113LSep 11 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.2511101051O. Gomilko1.5781212113LSep 9 · 20:25V. Kobets4.501111113K. Hrynenko1.179750WSep 9 · 18:55K. Hrynenko2.104111012133S. Skachenko1.671191210112WSep 9 · 16:55D. Rehotun2.201167101K. Hrynenko1.6161111123WSep 9 · 14:55S. Khandetskyi2.6311981162K. Hrynenko1.44511119113LSep 9 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.2013116113K. Hrynenko1.611151161WSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971
V. Lobas10
WSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol2.1041111792V. Lobas1.67118311113WSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440WSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123WSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113
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