TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101173
Played Sep 9Finished
Vitalii Kobets
Home
4.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117115––––
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
1.17
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:28 and never touched — 83.8% is still 83.8%
Graded at full timeKostiantyn Hrynenko to win
83.8%
83.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingVitalii Kobets above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 54 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Kostiantyn Hrynenko at 83.8%
54 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Kobets 1–4 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Vitalii Kobets has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:28What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.17 (79%)
Hrynenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Hrynenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kobets 1505 vs Hrynenko 1684
Hrynenko
Wrong
both rated, 179 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kobets 60% vs Hrynenko 80%
Hrynenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kobets 50% vs Hrynenko 80%
Hrynenko
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kobets +2 · Hrynenko +3
Hrynenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Hrynenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kobets form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (22%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKobets 4.50 / Hrynenko 1.17
Signal prob.16% / 84%
Edge (Hrynenko)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13101173
Kobets4.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog45% won 73 of 164
Down 0–1, comes back26% 24 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back12% 6 of 52
Hrynenko1.17
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 60 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it82% 51 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKobets1wins
AwayHrynenko4wins
Hrynenko leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKobets33.3%1 of 3
AwayHrynenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kobets3Hrynenko2n = 5Kobets took 3 of 5
S2Kobets1Hrynenko4n = 5Hrynenko took 4 of 5
S3Kobets1Hrynenko4n = 5Hrynenko took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away240%
These 5 meetings
MetricKobetsHrynenkoK − HBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match30.034.0−4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKobetsHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime452 / 874 vs 427 / 90751.7%47.1%452 / 874 vs 427 / 907Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrynenkoKobets 4.50/Hrynenko 1.17
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
83.8%
Hrynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kobets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 20 · 24:05V. Kobets—119891K. Hrynenko—21111113
LAug 11 · 21:35V. Kobets—9860K. Hrynenko—1111113
LAug 4 · 14:25V. Kobets—101070K. Hrynenko—1212113
LAug 3 · 17:25V. Kobets—123961K. Hrynenko—101111113
WJul 23 · 02:05V. Kobets—1111113K. Hrynenko—9690
V. Kobets10
WSep 9 · 18:25O. Melashenko1.5711711782V. Kobets2.25811611113WSep 9 · 16:25S. Khandetskyi2.00115118122V. Kobets1.73611911143LSep 9 · 15:25V. Kobets2.387712111S. Skachenko1.53111110133WSep 9 · 14:25D. Rehotun2.0010610V. Kobets1.731211113LSep 7 · 19:55V. Kobets2.2510590H. Kulishov1.571211113LSep 7 · 17:55O. Melashenko1.671211113V. Kobets2.1010530WSep 7 · 16:55V. Kobets1.8311119113S. Khandetskyi1.83441181WSep 7 · 15:55P. Ishchyk1.831159121V. Kobets1.8361111143LSep 7 · 14:25V. Kobets2.1010770O. Naida1.671211113LAug 31 · 19:55V. Kobets4.332490K. Hrynenko1.201111113
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 9 · 18:55K. Hrynenko2.104111012133S. Skachenko1.671191210112WSep 9 · 16:55D. Rehotun2.201167101K. Hrynenko1.6161111123WSep 9 · 14:55S. Khandetskyi2.6311981162K. Hrynenko1.44511119113LSep 9 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.2013116113K. Hrynenko1.611151161WSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971WSep 9 · 01:35D. Rehotun1.832660K. Hrynenko1.831111113WSep 9 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.301112153D. Us3.40010130LSep 8 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi2.50111014113K. Hrynenko1.503121291WSep 8 · 22:05K. Hrynenko1.441111113S. Pitsyk2.636740WAug 31 · 19:55V. Kobets4.332490K. Hrynenko1.201111113
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