TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101087
Played Sep 9Finished
Serhii Khandetskyi
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1165111198111214
Vitalii Kobets
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:06 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeVitalii Kobets to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Khandetskyi above · Vitalii Kobets below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 12-14
Point 98 set 5, 12-14 — our read held Vitalii Kobets at 54.3%
98 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Khandetskyi 26–19 Vitalii Kobets Vitalii Kobets has won 19 of their 45 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 22:06What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kobets
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-19 in 45
Khandetskyi
Wrong
gap of 7 in 45, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khandetskyi 1478 vs Kobets 1482
Kobets
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khandetskyi 0% vs Kobets 40%
Kobets
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khandetskyi 30% vs Kobets 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khandetskyi -5 · Kobets -1
Khandetskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kobets)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kobets form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhandetskyi 2.00 / Kobets 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kobets)+0.6pp
Setka Cup · #13101087
Khandetskyi2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 97 of 193
Down 0–1, comes back29% 29 of 100
Down 0–2, comes back10% 5 of 48
Kobets1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 85 of 145
Up 2–0, closes it88% 36 of 41
Up 1–0, closes it76% 55 of 72
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhandetskyi5wins
AwayKobets5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhandetskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayKobets100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khandetskyi6Kobets4n = 10Khandetskyi took 6 of 10
S2Khandetskyi3Kobets7n = 10Kobets took 7 of 10
S3Khandetskyi5Kobets5n = 10split evenly
S4Khandetskyi2Kobets5n = 7Kobets took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhandetskyiKobetsKhandetskyi − KobetsBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match32.037.2−5.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhandetskyiKobetsBasisWin rate · lifetime398 / 799 vs 450 / 87249.8%51.6%398 / 799 vs 450 / 872Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KobetsKhandetskyi 2.00/Kobets 1.73
Hit
What we said
54.3%
Kobets · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kobets won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 7 · 16:55S. Khandetskyi—441181V. Kobets—11119113
WAug 31 · 16:55S. Khandetskyi—121239113V. Kobets—1010111112
LAug 27 · 01:55S. Khandetskyi—5220V. Kobets—1111113
LAug 24 · 17:55S. Khandetskyi—9750V. Kobets—1111113
LAug 19 · 21:05S. Khandetskyi—941151V. Kobets—11118113
WAug 12 · 14:25S. Khandetskyi—1110116113V. Kobets—71291172
WAug 12 · 02:05S. Khandetskyi—1111113V. Kobets—8990
LAug 4 · 16:55S. Khandetskyi—114731V. Kobets—81111113
WAug 3 · 18:25S. Khandetskyi—12711113V. Kobets—1011851
WJul 14 · 22:35S. Khandetskyi—11116113V. Kobets—671191
S. Khandetskyi10
LSep 9 · 14:55S. Khandetskyi2.6311981162K. Hrynenko1.44511119113LSep 9 · 13:25S. Khandetskyi2.3813690S. Skachenko1.531511113LSep 9 · 03:05D. Rehotun2.63611811123S. Khandetskyi1.44112118102LSep 9 · 02:05S. Khandetskyi1.831181141S. Pitsyk1.8313116113LSep 9 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi2.50114911112O. Naida1.50511119133WSep 8 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi2.50111014113K. Hrynenko1.503121291WSep 8 · 21:35S. Khandetskyi1.67102111113D. Us2.101219661WSep 7 · 20:25O. Naida1.44951181S. Khandetskyi2.6311114113LSep 7 · 18:55S. Khandetskyi1.806171251H. Kulishov1.91111514113LSep 7 · 16:55V. Kobets1.8311119113S. Khandetskyi1.83441181
V. Kobets10
LSep 9 · 15:25V. Kobets2.387712111S. Skachenko1.53111110133WSep 9 · 14:25D. Rehotun2.0010610V. Kobets1.731211113LSep 7 · 19:55V. Kobets2.2510590H. Kulishov1.571211113LSep 7 · 17:55O. Melashenko1.671211113V. Kobets2.1010530WSep 7 · 16:55V. Kobets1.8311119113S. Khandetskyi1.83441181WSep 7 · 15:55P. Ishchyk1.831159121V. Kobets1.8361111143LSep 7 · 14:25V. Kobets2.1010770O. Naida1.671211113LAug 31 · 19:55V. Kobets4.332490K. Hrynenko1.201111113WAug 31 · 17:55Y. Sokoltsov2.20711491V. Kobets1.6111911113LAug 31 · 16:55V. Kobets1.731010111112S. Khandetskyi2.00121239113
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