TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100935
Played Sep 9Finished
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
411119101212101311
Serhii Skachenko
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 103 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 2–5 Serhii Skachenko Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:06What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Skachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-5 in 7
Skachenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1676 vs Skachenko 1572
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 103 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 80% vs Skachenko 60%
Hrynenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 70% vs Skachenko 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko +2 · Skachenko +3
Skachenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 2.10 / Skachenko 1.67
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skachenko)-1.6pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13100935
Hrynenko2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 155 of 353
Down 0–1, comes back26% 48 of 184
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 97
Skachenko1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite51% won 38 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it66% 27 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeHrynenko2wins
AwaySkachenko5wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSkachenko leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko40%2 of 5
AwaySkachenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko5Skachenko2n = 7Hrynenko took 5 of 7
S2Hrynenko3Skachenko4n = 7Skachenko took 4 of 7
S3Hrynenko1Skachenko6n = 7Skachenko took 6 of 7
S4Hrynenko2Skachenko3n = 5Skachenko took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away229%
These 7 meetings
MetricHrynenkoSkachenkoH − SBasisWins25−3in 7 meetingsFirst set52+3of 7Avg pointsper match37.042.7−5.7per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoSkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime426 / 906 vs 122 / 30147%40.5%426 / 906 vs 122 / 301Avg sets wonper match1.91.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoHrynenko 2.10/Skachenko 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.2%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 8 · 24:55K. Hrynenko—11113892S. Skachenko—981111113
WAug 20 · 02:05K. Hrynenko—11115153S. Skachenko—8811131
LAug 5 · 13:25K. Hrynenko—108160S. Skachenko—1211183
LJul 17 · 24:55K. Hrynenko—2980S. Skachenko—1111113
WJul 15 · 17:25K. Hrynenko—12711133S. Skachenko—10119111
LJul 15 · 24:55K. Hrynenko—117861S. Skachenko—91111113
LJun 17 · 16:25K. Hrynenko—111171262S. Skachenko—971114113
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 9 · 16:55D. Rehotun2.201167101K. Hrynenko1.6161111123WSep 9 · 14:55S. Khandetskyi2.6311981162K. Hrynenko1.44511119113LSep 9 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.2013116113K. Hrynenko1.611151161WSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971WSep 9 · 01:35D. Rehotun1.832660K. Hrynenko1.831111113WSep 9 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.301112153D. Us3.40010130LSep 8 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi2.50111014113K. Hrynenko1.503121291WSep 8 · 22:05K. Hrynenko1.441111113S. Pitsyk2.636740WSep 8 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.001112310133S. Abalmaz1.737101112112LSep 8 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.731111113K. Hrynenko2.006980
S. Skachenko10
WSep 9 · 17:25O. Melashenko2.0051190S. Skachenko1.731113113WSep 9 · 15:25V. Kobets2.387712111S. Skachenko1.53111110133WSep 9 · 13:25S. Khandetskyi2.3813690S. Skachenko1.531511113LSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko2.38131114103S. Skachenko1.531561281LSep 8 · 18:25S. Skachenko1.838790S. Abalmaz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:25S. Skachenko2.10111113113D. Derevynskyi1.67651561WSep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko1.8311115123R. Gnoevoy1.838611101LSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192WSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko1.83126114123S. Abalmaz1.831011711102WSep 8 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.0011113892S. Skachenko1.73981111113
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