TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095097
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Skachenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711911––––
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSerhii Skachenko above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 57 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 54.0%
57 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Skachenko 11–7 Spartak Abalmaz Spartak Abalmaz has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Skachenko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skachenko 1565 vs Abalmaz 1589
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skachenko 80% vs Abalmaz 40%
Skachenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skachenko 60% vs Abalmaz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skachenko +2 · Abalmaz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkachenko 1.83 / Abalmaz 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skachenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13095097
Skachenko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Abalmaz1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkachenko6wins
AwayAbalmaz4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSkachenko leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkachenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayAbalmaz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skachenko7Abalmaz3n = 10Skachenko took 7 of 10
S2Skachenko6Abalmaz4n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S3Skachenko5Abalmaz5n = 10split evenly
S4Skachenko2Abalmaz7n = 9Abalmaz took 7 of 9
S5Skachenko4Abalmaz2n = 6Skachenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkachenkoAbalmazS − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.743.8−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkachenkoAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime119 / 296 vs 426 / 83540.2%51%119 / 296 vs 426 / 835Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoSkachenko 1.83/Abalmaz 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko—126114123S. Abalmaz—1011711102
LSep 1 · 23:25S. Skachenko—12951192S. Abalmaz—1011116113
WAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko—1211143S. Abalmaz—106120
LAug 28 · 04:25S. Skachenko—11711892S. Abalmaz—611511113
WAug 19 · 03:35S. Skachenko—1011116113S. Abalmaz—12871182
LAug 18 · 04:25S. Skachenko—1111651S. Abalmaz—13811113
WAug 11 · 13:25S. Skachenko—19115113S. Abalmaz—1741161
LAug 11 · 04:25S. Skachenko—811791S. Abalmaz—11711113
WAug 4 · 23:35S. Skachenko—127148113S. Abalmaz—1011121182
WAug 3 · 23:25S. Skachenko—1111410123S. Abalmaz—791112102
S. Skachenko10
LSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko2.38131114103S. Skachenko1.531561281WSep 8 · 17:25S. Skachenko2.10111113113D. Derevynskyi1.67651561WSep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko1.8311115123R. Gnoevoy1.838611101LSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192WSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko1.83126114123S. Abalmaz1.831011711102WSep 8 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.0011113892S. Skachenko1.73981111113WSep 7 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.6712791272S. Skachenko2.1010111110113LSep 7 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.801111113S. Skachenko1.916860LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193
S. Abalmaz10
WSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko2.63113681S. Abalmaz1.4441111113WSep 8 · 15:25S. Abalmaz2.1091111113D. Derevynskyi1.67112341LSep 8 · 14:25V. Khamurda2.63111110113S. Abalmaz1.44671211LSep 8 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.001112310133S. Abalmaz1.737101112112LSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko1.83126114123S. Abalmaz1.831011711102WSep 8 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.6111971192S. Abalmaz2.20211115113WSep 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.9111591172S. Abalmaz1.80911115113LSep 7 · 21:25V. Khamurda2.6391114113S. Abalmaz1.441171231LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113
Upcoming Matches
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S. Abalmaz
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