TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095031
Played Sep 8Finished
Tymur Ponomarenko
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
114311611811––
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:43 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 65 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 68.9%
65 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 5–15 Spartak Abalmaz Tymur Ponomarenko has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:43What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Abalmaz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-15 in 20
Abalmaz
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1416 vs Abalmaz 1582
Abalmaz
Correct
both rated, 166 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Abalmaz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 30% vs Abalmaz 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -2 · Abalmaz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Abalmaz form (40%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.63 / Abalmaz 1.44
Signal prob.31% / 69%
Edge (Abalmaz)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13095031
Ponomarenko2.63
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 36 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Abalmaz1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite59% won 175 of 296
Up 2–0, closes it95% 79 of 83
Up 1–0, closes it76% 128 of 168
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko3wins
AwayAbalmaz7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAbalmaz leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko60%3 of 5
AwayAbalmaz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko5Abalmaz5n = 10split evenly
S2Ponomarenko5Abalmaz5n = 10split evenly
S3Ponomarenko3Abalmaz7n = 10Abalmaz took 7 of 10
S4Ponomarenko3Abalmaz4n = 7Abalmaz took 4 of 7
S5Ponomarenko1Abalmaz3n = 4Abalmaz took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoAbalmazP − ABasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.341.3−4.0per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 371 vs 425 / 83454.5%51%202 / 371 vs 425 / 834Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazPonomarenko 2.63/Abalmaz 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.9%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 04:25T. Ponomarenko—1113113S. Abalmaz—71180
LSep 1 · 02:25T. Ponomarenko—7690S. Abalmaz—1111113
LAug 31 · 04:25T. Ponomarenko—1191191S. Abalmaz—13118113
WAug 28 · 19:05T. Ponomarenko—11134113S. Abalmaz—8111181
LAug 26 · 01:05T. Ponomarenko—111329102S. Abalmaz—9111111123
WAug 21 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko—117311123S. Abalmaz—911119102
LAug 19 · 02:35T. Ponomarenko—10770S. Abalmaz—1211113
LAug 18 · 24:25T. Ponomarenko—8119101S. Abalmaz—11511123
LAug 13 · 23:25T. Ponomarenko—41161192S. Abalmaz—116119113
LAug 11 · 15:25T. Ponomarenko—117111152S. Abalmaz—711613113
T. Ponomarenko10
LSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113LSep 8 · 13:25T. Ponomarenko2.00591251D. Derevynskyi1.73111110113WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161
S. Abalmaz10
WSep 8 · 15:25S. Abalmaz2.1091111113D. Derevynskyi1.67112341LSep 8 · 14:25V. Khamurda2.63111110113S. Abalmaz1.44671211LSep 8 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.001112310133S. Abalmaz1.737101112112LSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko1.83126114123S. Abalmaz1.831011711102WSep 8 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.6111971192S. Abalmaz2.20211115113WSep 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.9111591172S. Abalmaz1.80911115113LSep 7 · 21:25V. Khamurda2.6391114113S. Abalmaz1.441171231LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.