TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089357
Played Sep 8Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
112911711115911
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 87 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 56.2%
87 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 39–27 Spartak Abalmaz Spartak Abalmaz has won 27 of their 66 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
39-27 in 66
Derevynskyi
Wrong
gap of 12 in 66, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1600 vs Abalmaz 1591
Derevynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 9 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 60% vs Abalmaz 40%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 60% vs Abalmaz 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi -1 · Abalmaz +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.61 / Abalmaz 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13089357
Derevynskyi1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 196 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it90% 90 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it72% 138 of 191
Abalmaz2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog50% won 68 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back31% 21 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back13% 4 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi6wins
AwayAbalmaz4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayAbalmaz75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi6Abalmaz4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Derevynskyi6Abalmaz4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Derevynskyi6Abalmaz4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S4Derevynskyi6Abalmaz2n = 8Derevynskyi took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiAbalmazD − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.238.3+1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime472 / 860 vs 423 / 82954.9%51%472 / 860 vs 423 / 829Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.61/Abalmaz 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.1%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Abalmaz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 4 · 03:55D. Derevynskyi—1411153S. Abalmaz—128130
WJul 29 · 02:05D. Derevynskyi—111211113S. Abalmaz—914661
LJul 26 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi—11861152S. Abalmaz—911117113
WJul 15 · 14:55D. Derevynskyi—13116123S. Abalmaz—11811101
LJul 13 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi—98111162S. Abalmaz—111199113
WJul 8 · 20:25D. Derevynskyi—1111153S. Abalmaz—77130
WJul 8 · 03:55D. Derevynskyi—12511113S. Abalmaz—1011691
LJul 7 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi—9116101S. Abalmaz—11911123
WJul 1 · 14:55D. Derevynskyi—71112113S. Abalmaz—1121061
LJul 1 · 01:35D. Derevynskyi—711991S. Abalmaz—11711113
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.831199141D. Derevynskyi1.8391111163WSep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.801111113R. Gnoevoy1.919760LSep 7 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.44831191K. Hrynenko2.6311119113WSep 7 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.801111113S. Skachenko1.916860WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113
S. Abalmaz10
LSep 8 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.001112310133S. Abalmaz1.737101112112LSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko1.83126114123S. Abalmaz1.831011711102WSep 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.9111591172S. Abalmaz1.80911115113LSep 7 · 21:25V. Khamurda2.6391114113S. Abalmaz1.441171231LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113LSep 4 · 24:25V. Khamurda2.5011118113S. Abalmaz1.50981151WSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120WSep 3 · 22:25O. Naida2.757660S. Abalmaz1.401111113LSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113
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