TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088963
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Skachenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
12106111174111210
Spartak Abalmaz
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:19 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSpartak Abalmaz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Skachenko above · Spartak Abalmaz below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 94 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Spartak Abalmaz at 54.0%
94 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Skachenko 11–7 Spartak Abalmaz Spartak Abalmaz has won 7 of their 18 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:19What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Abalmaz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-7 in 18
Skachenko
Correct
gap of 4 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skachenko 1551 vs Abalmaz 1589
Abalmaz
Wrong
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skachenko 60% vs Abalmaz 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skachenko 50% vs Abalmaz 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skachenko +2 · Abalmaz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Abalmaz)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkachenko 1.83 / Abalmaz 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Abalmaz)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13088963
Skachenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Abalmaz1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkachenko6wins
AwayAbalmaz4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderSkachenko leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkachenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayAbalmaz66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skachenko7Abalmaz3n = 10Skachenko took 7 of 10
S2Skachenko6Abalmaz4n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S3Skachenko5Abalmaz5n = 10split evenly
S4Skachenko2Abalmaz7n = 9Abalmaz took 7 of 9
S5Skachenko4Abalmaz2n = 6Skachenko took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkachenkoAbalmazS − ABasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match43.743.8−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkachenkoAbalmazBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 293 vs 424 / 83139.9%51%117 / 293 vs 424 / 831Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AbalmazSkachenko 1.83/Abalmaz 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Abalmaz · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Skachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko—126114123S. Abalmaz—1011711102
LSep 1 · 23:25S. Skachenko—12951192S. Abalmaz—1011116113
WAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko—1211143S. Abalmaz—106120
LAug 28 · 04:25S. Skachenko—11711892S. Abalmaz—611511113
WAug 19 · 03:35S. Skachenko—1011116113S. Abalmaz—12871182
LAug 18 · 04:25S. Skachenko—1111651S. Abalmaz—13811113
WAug 11 · 13:25S. Skachenko—19115113S. Abalmaz—1741161
LAug 11 · 04:25S. Skachenko—811791S. Abalmaz—11711113
WAug 4 · 23:35S. Skachenko—127148113S. Abalmaz—1011121182
WAug 3 · 23:25S. Skachenko—1111410123S. Abalmaz—791112102
S. Skachenko10
LSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko2.38131114103S. Skachenko1.531561281LSep 8 · 18:25S. Skachenko1.838790S. Abalmaz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:25S. Skachenko2.10111113113D. Derevynskyi1.67651561WSep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko1.8311115123R. Gnoevoy1.838611101LSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192WSep 8 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.0011113892S. Skachenko1.73981111113WSep 7 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.6712791272S. Skachenko2.1010111110113LSep 7 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.801111113S. Skachenko1.916860LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193
S. Abalmaz10
WSep 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz1.8071111113R. Gnoevoy1.91117751WSep 8 · 18:25S. Skachenko1.838790S. Abalmaz1.831111113WSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko2.63113681S. Abalmaz1.4441111113WSep 8 · 15:25S. Abalmaz2.1091111113D. Derevynskyi1.67112341LSep 8 · 14:25V. Khamurda2.63111110113S. Abalmaz1.44671211LSep 8 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.001112310133S. Abalmaz1.737101112112WSep 8 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.6111971192S. Abalmaz2.20211115113WSep 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.9111591172S. Abalmaz1.80911115113LSep 7 · 21:25V. Khamurda2.6391114113S. Abalmaz1.441171231LSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113
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