TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088930
Played Sep 8Finished
Roman Gnoevoy
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1113113118711119
Serhii Skachenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:09 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 54.0%
95 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 6–6 Serhii Skachenko Dead even across their 12 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:09What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Gnoevoy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-6 in 12
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1529 vs Skachenko 1551
Skachenko
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 20% vs Skachenko 60%
Skachenko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 40% vs Skachenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy -1 · Skachenko +3
Skachenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Gnoevoy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 1.80 / Skachenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Gnoevoy)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13088930
Gnoevoy1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 85 of 143
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it75% 60 of 80
Skachenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog36% won 72 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGnoevoy4wins
AwaySkachenko6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSkachenko leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoy75%3 of 4
AwaySkachenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy4Skachenko6n = 10Skachenko took 6 of 10
S2Gnoevoy6Skachenko4n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S3Gnoevoy7Skachenko3n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S4Gnoevoy3Skachenko5n = 8Skachenko took 5 of 8
S5Gnoevoy0Skachenko3n = 3Skachenko took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGnoevoySkachenkoG − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match39.638.8+0.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoySkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 819 vs 117 / 29350.2%39.9%411 / 819 vs 117 / 293Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyGnoevoy 1.80/Skachenko 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy—11813113S. Skachenko—4111181
LAug 28 · 14:05R. Gnoevoy—51111982S. Skachenko—117811113
LAug 27 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy—4101161S. Skachenko—11126113
WAug 11 · 14:55R. Gnoevoy—71111113S. Skachenko—117971
LAug 10 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy—71315141S. Skachenko—111117163
LAug 4 · 22:05R. Gnoevoy—7990S. Skachenko—1111113
WAug 4 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy—1111113S. Skachenko—4390
LJul 31 · 02:55R. Gnoevoy—811111062S. Skachenko—118912113
WJul 21 · 22:35R. Gnoevoy—11118113S. Skachenko—751171
LJul 20 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy—12711952S. Skachenko—1011411113
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.801111113R. Gnoevoy1.919760WSep 8 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.73811971R. Gnoevoy2.0011811113LSep 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.9111591172S. Abalmaz1.80911115113LSep 7 · 22:25K. Hrynenko2.201112113R. Gnoevoy1.6181090LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182LSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113WSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680WSep 3 · 23:55R. Gnoevoy1.8351118133O. Naida1.8311816111LSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113WSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181
S. Skachenko10
WSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko1.83126114123S. Abalmaz1.831011711102WSep 8 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.0011113892S. Skachenko1.73981111113WSep 7 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.6712791272S. Skachenko2.1010111110113LSep 7 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.801111113S. Skachenko1.916860LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470LSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113LAug 28 · 18:35S. Skachenko1.839111121V. Khamurda1.8311138113
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