TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089240
Played Sep 8Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119117116––––
Roman Gnoevoy
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 55 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 70–63 Roman Gnoevoy Roman Gnoevoy has won 63 of their 133 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:40What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
70-63 in 133
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 7 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1589 vs Gnoevoy 1542
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 47 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 60% vs Gnoevoy 20%
Derevynskyi
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 50% vs Gnoevoy 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi -2 · Gnoevoy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.80 / Gnoevoy 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13089240
Derevynskyi1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 196 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it90% 90 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it72% 138 of 191
Gnoevoy1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog50% won 110 of 221
Down 0–1, comes back25% 27 of 109
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 65
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi6wins
AwayGnoevoy4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayGnoevoy75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi6Gnoevoy4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Derevynskyi7Gnoevoy3n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Derevynskyi8Gnoevoy2n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Derevynskyi1Gnoevoy3n = 4Gnoevoy took 3 of 4
S5Derevynskyi1Gnoevoy2n = 3Gnoevoy took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiGnoevoyD − GBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match36.730.7+6.0per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime472 / 861 vs 411 / 81854.8%50.2%472 / 861 vs 411 / 818Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.80/Gnoevoy 1.91
Hit
What we said
54%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 21:25D. Derevynskyi—1111113R. Gnoevoy—7490
LAug 13 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi—681191R. Gnoevoy—11116113
WAug 4 · 24:55D. Derevynskyi—1111113R. Gnoevoy—5870
WJul 28 · 23:05D. Derevynskyi—1111113R. Gnoevoy—8370
LJul 26 · 22:55D. Derevynskyi—71111892R. Gnoevoy—115811113
WJul 8 · 15:25D. Derevynskyi—1111113R. Gnoevoy—5960
LJul 7 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi—610100R. Gnoevoy—1112123
LJul 7 · 24:55D. Derevynskyi—11119882R. Gnoevoy—981111113
WJul 1 · 17:55D. Derevynskyi—1111113R. Gnoevoy—7560
WJun 30 · 22:35D. Derevynskyi—971111113R. Gnoevoy—11112982
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda1.807770D. Derevynskyi1.911111113LSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980LSep 8 · 17:25S. Skachenko2.10111113113D. Derevynskyi1.67651561LSep 8 · 15:25S. Abalmaz2.1091111113D. Derevynskyi1.67112341WSep 8 · 13:25T. Ponomarenko2.00591251D. Derevynskyi1.73111110113WSep 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.831199141D. Derevynskyi1.8391111163LSep 8 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.6111971192S. Abalmaz2.20211115113LSep 7 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.44831191K. Hrynenko2.6311119113WSep 7 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.801111113S. Skachenko1.916860WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 8 · 20:25S. Abalmaz1.8071111113R. Gnoevoy1.91117751WSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980LSep 8 · 16:55V. Khamurda1.611311113R. Gnoevoy2.2011980WSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113LSep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko1.8311115123R. Gnoevoy1.838611101WSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192WSep 8 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.73811971R. Gnoevoy2.0011811113LSep 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.9111591172S. Abalmaz1.80911115113LSep 7 · 22:25K. Hrynenko2.201112113R. Gnoevoy1.6181090LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182
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