TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088711
Played Sep 7Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811311119911––
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
2.63
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:08 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 62.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 106–62 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 62 of their 168 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:08What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
106-62 in 168
Derevynskyi
Wrong
gap of 44 in 168, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1609 vs Hrynenko 1678
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 60% vs Hrynenko 80%
Hrynenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 70% vs Hrynenko 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi +3 · Hrynenko +2
Derevynskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.44 / Hrynenko 2.63
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13088711
Derevynskyi1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 196 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it90% 90 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it72% 138 of 191
Hrynenko2.63
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 151 of 347
Down 0–1, comes back26% 48 of 183
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 96
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi7wins
AwayHrynenko3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi83.3%5 of 6
AwayHrynenko50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi6Hrynenko4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Derevynskyi8Hrynenko2n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S3Derevynskyi7Hrynenko3n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Derevynskyi4Hrynenko2n = 6Derevynskyi took 4 of 6
S5Derevynskyi1Hrynenko2n = 3Hrynenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiHrynenkoD − HBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.934.3+5.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime472 / 859 vs 422 / 89955%46.9%472 / 859 vs 422 / 899Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.44/Hrynenko 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 12 · 02:35D. Derevynskyi—1111123K. Hrynenko—98100
WAug 5 · 16:25D. Derevynskyi—1111113K. Hrynenko—7780
WAug 4 · 15:25D. Derevynskyi—1181111113K. Hrynenko—13117662
LJul 29 · 18:55D. Derevynskyi—117581K. Hrynenko—11111113
LJul 27 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi—711111192K. Hrynenko—117136113
WJul 22 · 23:05D. Derevynskyi—71311123K. Hrynenko—11118101
WJul 21 · 01:03D. Derevynskyi—1112113K. Hrynenko—71070
LJul 17 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi—91111992K. Hrynenko—119911113
WJul 15 · 18:55D. Derevynskyi—1111113K. Hrynenko—5980
WJul 8 · 16:25D. Derevynskyi—11117123K. Hrynenko—6511101
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 7 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.801111113S. Skachenko1.916860WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 7 · 22:25K. Hrynenko2.201112113R. Gnoevoy1.6181090WSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990WSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113LSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko1.73471571O. Melashenko2.00111113113
Upcoming Matches
D. Derevynskyi
Sep 8 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.61S. Abalmaz2.20—Sep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.80R. Gnoevoy1.91—Sep 8 · 03:25D. Derevynskyi1.83V. Khamurda1.83—Sep 8 · 13:25D. Derevynskyi1.73T. Ponomarenko2.00—Sep 8 · 15:25D. Derevynskyi1.61S. Abalmaz2.20—Sep 8 · 17:25D. Derevynskyi1.67S. Skachenko2.10—Sep 8 · 18:55D. Derevynskyi1.80R. Gnoevoy1.91—Sep 8 · 19:55D. Derevynskyi1.83V. Khamurda1.83—
K. Hrynenko
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