TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13089281
Played Sep 7Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116118116––––
Serhii Skachenko
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 53 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.0%
53 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 4–4 Serhii Skachenko Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1598 vs Skachenko 1521
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 78 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 60% vs Skachenko 40%
Derevynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 70% vs Skachenko 50%
Derevynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi +2 · Skachenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Skachenko form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.80 / Skachenko 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13089281
Derevynskyi1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 196 of 335
Up 2–0, closes it90% 90 of 100
Up 1–0, closes it72% 138 of 191
Skachenko1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog36% won 72 of 200
Down 0–1, comes back17% 21 of 123
Down 0–2, comes back8% 7 of 85
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi4wins
AwaySkachenko4wins
5 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi100%3 of 3
AwaySkachenko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi3Skachenko5n = 8Skachenko took 5 of 8
S2Derevynskyi7Skachenko1n = 8Derevynskyi took 7 of 8
S3Derevynskyi1Skachenko7n = 8Skachenko took 7 of 8
S4Derevynskyi6Skachenko2n = 8Derevynskyi took 6 of 8
S5Derevynskyi2Skachenko3n = 5Skachenko took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiSkachenkoD − SBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set35−2of 8Avg pointsper match44.542.5+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiSkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime477 / 868 vs 114 / 28955%39.5%477 / 868 vs 114 / 289Avg sets wonper match2.21.7per matchAvg pointsper match39.836.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.80/Skachenko 1.91
Hit
What we said
54%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 19 · 23:35D. Derevynskyi—91141192S. Skachenko—118119113
WAug 18 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi—121195123S. Skachenko—1081111102
WAug 5 · 15:25D. Derevynskyi—11115113S. Skachenko—471181
WAug 3 · 22:25D. Derevynskyi—119811113S. Skachenko—71111692
LJul 31 · 23:35D. Derevynskyi—5111081S. Skachenko—11412113
WJul 17 · 03:55D. Derevynskyi—131111113S. Skachenko—153671
LJul 15 · 13:55D. Derevynskyi—81161182S. Skachenko—118116113
LJun 17 · 18:25D. Derevynskyi—912101192S. Skachenko—1110126113
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772WSep 4 · 21:05Y. Krol2.639680D. Derevynskyi1.441111113WSep 4 · 04:25S. Abalmaz2.108760D. Derevynskyi1.671111113LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113WSep 4 · 24:55O. Naida2.103680D. Derevynskyi1.671111113WSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.91117681D. Derevynskyi1.8081111113WSep 3 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy2.0011891182D. Derevynskyi1.73511113113
S. Skachenko10
LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470LSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113LAug 28 · 18:35S. Skachenko1.839111121V. Khamurda1.8311138113WAug 28 · 17:05S. Skachenko1.831211143S. Abalmaz1.83106120LAug 28 · 15:35S. Skachenko1.6711591672O. Naida2.104111114113WAug 28 · 14:05S. Skachenko1.91117811113R. Gnoevoy1.8051111982WAug 28 · 12:35S. Skachenko1.8011911153T. Ponomarenko1.913115131
Upcoming Matches
D. Derevynskyi
Sep 7 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.44K. Hrynenko2.63—Sep 8 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.67S. Abalmaz2.10—Sep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.80R. Gnoevoy1.91—Sep 8 · 03:25D. Derevynskyi1.83V. Khamurda1.83—Sep 8 · 13:25D. Derevynskyi1.73T. Ponomarenko2.00—Sep 8 · 15:25D. Derevynskyi1.67S. Abalmaz2.10—Sep 8 · 17:25D. Derevynskyi1.80S. Skachenko1.91—Sep 8 · 18:55D. Derevynskyi1.80R. Gnoevoy1.91—Sep 8 · 19:55D. Derevynskyi1.83V. Khamurda1.83—
S. Skachenko
Sep 8 · 24:55S. Skachenko1.73K. Hrynenko2.00—Sep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko1.83S. Abalmaz1.83—Sep 8 · 04:25S. Skachenko1.91R. Gnoevoy1.80—Sep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko1.91R. Gnoevoy1.80—Sep 8 · 15:55S. Skachenko1.83V. Khamurda1.83—Sep 8 · 17:25S. Skachenko1.91D. Derevynskyi1.80—Sep 8 · 18:25S. Skachenko1.83S. Abalmaz1.83—Sep 8 · 19:25S. Skachenko1.57T. Ponomarenko2.25—
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