TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095149
Played Sep 8Finished
Serhii Skachenko
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181165111210––
Roman Gnoevoy
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSerhii Skachenko above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 74 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Serhii Skachenko 6–7 Roman Gnoevoy Serhii Skachenko has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:52What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gnoevoy
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Skachenko 1540 vs Gnoevoy 1541
Gnoevoy
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Skachenko 60% vs Gnoevoy 40%
Skachenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Skachenko 50% vs Gnoevoy 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Skachenko -1 · Gnoevoy +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSkachenko 1.83 / Gnoevoy 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Skachenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13095149
Skachenko1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Gnoevoy1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSkachenko5wins
AwayGnoevoy5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSkachenko71.4%5 of 7
AwayGnoevoy100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Skachenko7Gnoevoy3n = 10Skachenko took 7 of 10
S2Skachenko3Gnoevoy7n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S3Skachenko3Gnoevoy7n = 10Gnoevoy took 7 of 10
S4Skachenko5Gnoevoy3n = 8Skachenko took 5 of 8
S5Skachenko2Gnoevoy1n = 3Skachenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSkachenkoGnoevoyS − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.540.3−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSkachenkoGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 294 vs 412 / 82039.8%50.2%117 / 294 vs 412 / 820Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.438.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoSkachenko 1.83/Gnoevoy 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Skachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 04:25S. Skachenko—13381192R. Gnoevoy—1111117113
LSep 2 · 03:55S. Skachenko—4111181R. Gnoevoy—11813113
WAug 28 · 14:05S. Skachenko—117811113R. Gnoevoy—51111982
WAug 27 · 22:25S. Skachenko—11126113R. Gnoevoy—4101161
LAug 11 · 14:55S. Skachenko—117971R. Gnoevoy—71111113
WAug 10 · 23:25S. Skachenko—111117163R. Gnoevoy—71315141
WAug 4 · 22:05S. Skachenko—1111113R. Gnoevoy—7990
LAug 4 · 04:25S. Skachenko—4390R. Gnoevoy—1111113
WJul 31 · 02:55S. Skachenko—118912113R. Gnoevoy—811111062
LJul 21 · 22:35S. Skachenko—751171R. Gnoevoy—11118113
S. Skachenko10
LSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192WSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko1.83126114123S. Abalmaz1.831011711102WSep 8 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.0011113892S. Skachenko1.73981111113WSep 7 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.6712791272S. Skachenko2.1010111110113LSep 7 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.801111113S. Skachenko1.916860LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 01:25V. Panasenko1.611111113S. Skachenko2.205470LSep 1 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.911011116113S. Skachenko1.8012951192WSep 1 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.805101171S. Skachenko1.9111126113
R. Gnoevoy10
WSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113WSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192LSep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.801111113R. Gnoevoy1.919760WSep 8 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.73811971R. Gnoevoy2.0011811113LSep 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.9111591172S. Abalmaz1.80911115113LSep 7 · 22:25K. Hrynenko2.201112113R. Gnoevoy1.6181090LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182LSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113WSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680WSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181
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