TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095060
Played Sep 8Finished
Tymur Ponomarenko
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119811911511––
Roman Gnoevoy
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:44 and never touched — 64.0% is still 64.0%
Graded at full timeRoman Gnoevoy to win
64.0%
64.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Roman Gnoevoy below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 75 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Roman Gnoevoy at 64.0%
75 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 5–8 Roman Gnoevoy Tymur Ponomarenko has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:44What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Gnoevoy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Gnoevoy
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1424 vs Gnoevoy 1529
Gnoevoy
Correct
both rated, 105 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Gnoevoy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Gnoevoy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko -1 · Gnoevoy -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Gnoevoy)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.38 / Gnoevoy 1.53
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Gnoevoy)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13095060
Ponomarenko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 36 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Gnoevoy1.53
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 85 of 144
Up 2–0, closes it96% 44 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it75% 60 of 80
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko5wins
AwayGnoevoy5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko75%3 of 4
AwayGnoevoy66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko4Gnoevoy6n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S2Ponomarenko4Gnoevoy6n = 10Gnoevoy took 6 of 10
S3Ponomarenko2Gnoevoy8n = 10Gnoevoy took 8 of 10
S4Ponomarenko6Gnoevoy1n = 7Ponomarenko took 6 of 7
S5Ponomarenko2Gnoevoy1n = 3Ponomarenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoGnoevoyP − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.637.5−1.9per matchSweeps03−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoGnoevoyBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 370 vs 412 / 82154.6%50.2%202 / 370 vs 412 / 821Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.738.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GnoevoyPonomarenko 2.38/Gnoevoy 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64%
Gnoevoy · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko—5680R. Gnoevoy—1111113
LSep 2 · 24:55T. Ponomarenko—741161R. Gnoevoy—11118113
LSep 1 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko—11070R. Gnoevoy—1112113
LAug 30 · 22:55T. Ponomarenko—1113811102R. Gnoevoy—815116123
WAug 28 · 18:05T. Ponomarenko—11118113R. Gnoevoy—471191
WAug 14 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko—119611113R. Gnoevoy—91111672
LAug 11 · 20:25T. Ponomarenko—45100R. Gnoevoy—1111123
WAug 10 · 21:25T. Ponomarenko—111112133R. Gnoevoy—2714111
WAug 7 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko—413611113R. Gnoevoy—111111522
WAug 5 · 24:05T. Ponomarenko—51111113R. Gnoevoy—119931
T. Ponomarenko10
LSep 8 · 13:25T. Ponomarenko2.00591251D. Derevynskyi1.73111110113WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161WSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko1.8311115123R. Gnoevoy1.838611101WSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192LSep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.801111113R. Gnoevoy1.919760WSep 8 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.73811971R. Gnoevoy2.0011811113LSep 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.9111591172S. Abalmaz1.80911115113LSep 7 · 22:25K. Hrynenko2.201112113R. Gnoevoy1.6181090LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182LSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113WSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680WSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161
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