TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094613
Played Sep 8Finished
Tymur Ponomarenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5119111210511––
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:38 and never touched — 56.5% is still 56.5%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
56.5%
56.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 74 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 56.5%
74 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 8–8 Dmytro Derevynskyi Dead even across their 16 meetings.
Last 10 · 4–6Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 19:38What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-8 in 16
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1431 vs Derevynskyi 1612
Derevynskyi
Correct
both rated, 182 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Derevynskyi 60%
Derevynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Derevynskyi 60%
Derevynskyi
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +2 · Derevynskyi +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.00 / Derevynskyi 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+2.8pp
Setka Cup · #13094613
Ponomarenko2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog35% won 36 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Derevynskyi1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 198 of 339
Up 2–0, closes it90% 92 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it72% 140 of 194
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePonomarenko4wins
AwayDerevynskyi6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko33.3%1 of 3
AwayDerevynskyi57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S2Ponomarenko4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Ponomarenko3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Ponomarenko4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S5Ponomarenko4Derevynskyi0n = 4Ponomarenko took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away660%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoDerevynskyiP − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match42.242.7−0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 369 vs 474 / 86354.7%54.9%202 / 369 vs 474 / 863Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.739.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiPonomarenko 2.00/Derevynskyi 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 21:55T. Ponomarenko—6118111D. Derevynskyi—11711133
LAug 31 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko—961181D. Derevynskyi—11119113
LAug 26 · 02:05T. Ponomarenko—1212871D. Derevynskyi—101411113
LAug 17 · 21:25T. Ponomarenko—12111141D. Derevynskyi—14613113
WAug 14 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko—117911113D. Derevynskyi—61111852
WAug 9 · 24:35T. Ponomarenko—971111113D. Derevynskyi—11116852
LJul 17 · 01:25T. Ponomarenko—9111291D. Derevynskyi—11814113
WJul 13 · 21:25T. Ponomarenko—10111011113D. Derevynskyi—12712912
WJul 10 · 23:35T. Ponomarenko—761211113D. Derevynskyi—111110392
LJul 1 · 13:25T. Ponomarenko—1168111D. Derevynskyi—71111133
T. Ponomarenko10
LSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193LSep 2 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy1.6111118113T. Ponomarenko2.20741161WSep 1 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.73711691T. Ponomarenko2.0011911113
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.831199141D. Derevynskyi1.8391111163WSep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.801111113R. Gnoevoy1.919760LSep 8 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.6111971192S. Abalmaz2.20211115113LSep 7 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.44831191K. Hrynenko2.6311119113WSep 7 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.801111113S. Skachenko1.916860WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113LSep 5 · 01:05K. Hrynenko2.5011411113D. Derevynskyi1.50511761LSep 4 · 23:05V. Lobas1.50761111113D. Derevynskyi2.5011116772LSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113
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