TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095080
Played Sep 8Finished
Roman Gnoevoy
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119118––––
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRoman Gnoevoy above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 58 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 54.0%
58 points played in total.
H2H Roman Gnoevoy 63–70 Dmytro Derevynskyi Roman Gnoevoy has won 63 of their 133 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
63-70 in 133
Derevynskyi
Wrong
gap of 7 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gnoevoy 1526 vs Derevynskyi 1592
Derevynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gnoevoy 40% vs Derevynskyi 60%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gnoevoy 30% vs Derevynskyi 60%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gnoevoy -1 · Derevynskyi -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gnoevoy form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGnoevoy 1.91 / Derevynskyi 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13095080
Gnoevoy1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 111 of 224
Down 0–1, comes back25% 27 of 110
Down 0–2, comes back14% 9 of 66
Derevynskyi1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 198 of 339
Up 2–0, closes it90% 92 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it72% 140 of 194
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGnoevoy4wins
AwayDerevynskyi6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGnoevoy75%3 of 4
AwayDerevynskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gnoevoy4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Gnoevoy3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S3Gnoevoy2Derevynskyi8n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S4Gnoevoy3Derevynskyi1n = 4Gnoevoy took 3 of 4
S5Gnoevoy2Derevynskyi1n = 3Gnoevoy took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricGnoevoyDerevynskyiG − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match30.736.7−6.0per matchSweeps15−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGnoevoyDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime412 / 820 vs 475 / 86650.2%54.9%412 / 820 vs 475 / 866Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.039.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiGnoevoy 1.91/Derevynskyi 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Gnoevoy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 21:25R. Gnoevoy—7490D. Derevynskyi—1111113
WAug 13 · 21:55R. Gnoevoy—11116113D. Derevynskyi—681191
LAug 4 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy—5870D. Derevynskyi—1111113
LJul 28 · 23:05R. Gnoevoy—8370D. Derevynskyi—1111113
WJul 26 · 22:55R. Gnoevoy—115811113D. Derevynskyi—71111892
LJul 8 · 15:25R. Gnoevoy—5960D. Derevynskyi—1111113
WJul 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy—1112123D. Derevynskyi—610100
WJul 7 · 24:55R. Gnoevoy—981111113D. Derevynskyi—11119882
LJul 1 · 17:55R. Gnoevoy—7560D. Derevynskyi—1111113
LJun 30 · 22:35R. Gnoevoy—11112982D. Derevynskyi—971111113
R. Gnoevoy10
LSep 8 · 16:55V. Khamurda1.611311113R. Gnoevoy2.2011980WSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113LSep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko1.8311115123R. Gnoevoy1.838611101WSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192LSep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.801111113R. Gnoevoy1.919760WSep 8 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.73811971R. Gnoevoy2.0011811113LSep 7 · 23:25R. Gnoevoy1.9111591172S. Abalmaz1.80911115113LSep 7 · 22:25K. Hrynenko2.201112113R. Gnoevoy1.6181090LSep 4 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.61117111113R. Gnoevoy2.2091131182LSep 4 · 02:25R. Gnoevoy1.91121191172S. Abalmaz1.801051113113
D. Derevynskyi10
LSep 8 · 17:25S. Skachenko2.10111113113D. Derevynskyi1.67651561LSep 8 · 15:25S. Abalmaz2.1091111113D. Derevynskyi1.67112341WSep 8 · 13:25T. Ponomarenko2.00591251D. Derevynskyi1.73111110113WSep 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.831199141D. Derevynskyi1.8391111163WSep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.801111113R. Gnoevoy1.919760LSep 8 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.6111971192S. Abalmaz2.20211115113LSep 7 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.44831191K. Hrynenko2.6311119113WSep 7 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.801111113S. Skachenko1.916860WSep 5 · 03:35O. Melashenko2.2578111172D. Derevynskyi1.57111119113WSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113
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