TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13095094
Played Sep 8Finished
Tymur Ponomarenko
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
13151161412108––
Serhii Skachenko
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 62.9% is still 62.9%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
62.9%
62.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingTymur Ponomarenko above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 10-8
Point 89 set 4, 10-8 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 62.9%
89 points played in total.
H2H Tymur Ponomarenko 3–6 Serhii Skachenko Tymur Ponomarenko has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:42What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Skachenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-6 in 9
Skachenko
Wrong
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ponomarenko 1426 vs Skachenko 1552
Skachenko
Wrong
both rated, 126 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Skachenko 60%
Skachenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ponomarenko 40% vs Skachenko 60%
Skachenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ponomarenko +1 · Skachenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Skachenko) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPonomarenko 2.38 / Skachenko 1.53
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Skachenko)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13095094
Ponomarenko2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 36 of 102
Down 0–1, comes back14% 8 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 36
Skachenko1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 37 of 72
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it67% 26 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomePonomarenko3wins
AwaySkachenko6wins
2 of 9 to a deciderSkachenko leads 6–3, and 2 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePonomarenko66.7%2 of 3
AwaySkachenko83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ponomarenko3Skachenko6n = 9Skachenko took 6 of 9
S2Ponomarenko3Skachenko6n = 9Skachenko took 6 of 9
S3Ponomarenko4Skachenko5n = 9Skachenko took 5 of 9
S4Ponomarenko1Skachenko6n = 7Skachenko took 6 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away444%
0–3Straight, away222%
These 9 meetings
MetricPonomarenkoSkachenkoP − SBasisWins36−3in 9 meetingsFirst set36−3of 9Avg pointsper match37.442.8−5.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPonomarenkoSkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 373 vs 119 / 29754.4%40.1%203 / 373 vs 119 / 297Avg sets wonper match2.11.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.736.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoPonomarenko 2.38/Skachenko 1.53
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ponomarenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko—88170S. Skachenko—1111193
LAug 28 · 12:35T. Ponomarenko—3115131S. Skachenko—11911153
LAug 19 · 24:35T. Ponomarenko—10711101S. Skachenko—12116123
WAug 17 · 22:55T. Ponomarenko—131197113S. Skachenko—119111182
LAug 11 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko—114881S. Skachenko—91111113
WAug 11 · 24:25T. Ponomarenko—131811113S. Skachenko—1516561
LAug 5 · 01:35T. Ponomarenko—9511131S. Skachenko—11116153
LJul 16 · 23:55T. Ponomarenko—8330S. Skachenko—1111113
WJul 14 · 22:25T. Ponomarenko—115119113S. Skachenko—81191182
T. Ponomarenko10
WSep 8 · 17:55T. Ponomarenko2.00111175113V. Khamurda1.7388111192LSep 8 · 16:25T. Ponomarenko2.63113681S. Abalmaz1.4441111113LSep 8 · 14:55T. Ponomarenko2.38118951R. Gnoevoy1.5391111113LSep 8 · 13:25T. Ponomarenko2.00591251D. Derevynskyi1.73111110113WSep 4 · 03:55O. Naida1.5091131152T. Ponomarenko2.50117112113WSep 4 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi1.80108111132T. Ponomarenko1.91121148113LSep 4 · 01:25R. Gnoevoy1.571111113T. Ponomarenko2.255680LSep 3 · 23:25S. Abalmaz1.571111143T. Ponomarenko2.2555120LSep 3 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.8391111113T. Ponomarenko1.83118261WSep 2 · 04:25S. Abalmaz1.4471180T. Ponomarenko2.631113113
S. Skachenko10
LSep 8 · 18:25S. Skachenko1.838790S. Abalmaz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:25S. Skachenko2.10111113113D. Derevynskyi1.67651561WSep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko1.8311115123R. Gnoevoy1.838611101LSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192WSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko1.83126114123S. Abalmaz1.831011711102WSep 8 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.0011113892S. Skachenko1.73981111113WSep 7 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.6712791272S. Skachenko2.1010111110113LSep 7 · 21:55D. Derevynskyi1.801111113S. Skachenko1.916860LSep 2 · 03:55R. Gnoevoy1.8311813113S. Skachenko1.834111181WSep 2 · 02:55T. Ponomarenko2.1088170S. Skachenko1.671111193
Upcoming Matches
T. Ponomarenko
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S. Skachenko
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