TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100843
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr Melashenko
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5111113911––––
Serhii Skachenko
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeSerhii Skachenko to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Serhii Skachenko below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-13
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 60 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Serhii Skachenko at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 1–1 Serhii Skachenko Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:47What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Skachenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1570 vs Skachenko 1558
Melashenko
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 80% vs Skachenko 60%
Melashenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 70% vs Skachenko 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko +4 · Skachenko +2
Melashenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Skachenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 2.00 / Skachenko 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Skachenko)+0.3pp
Setka Cup · #13100843
Melashenko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 113 of 287
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 94
Skachenko1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite51% won 38 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it94% 17 of 18
Up 1–0, closes it66% 27 of 41
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMelashenko1wins
AwaySkachenko1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMelashenkoSkachenkoM − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match44.044.00.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoSkachenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime440 / 858 vs 121 / 30051.3%40.3%440 / 858 vs 121 / 300Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.336.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SkachenkoMelashenko 2.00/Skachenko 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Skachenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Skachenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 5 · 17:25O. Melashenko—1011811113S. Skachenko—12611982
LJul 16 · 22:25O. Melashenko—1011791S. Skachenko—12811113
O. Melashenko10
WSep 9 · 15:55O. Melashenko1.40137116113D. Rehotun2.75111131182WSep 9 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.2013116113K. Hrynenko1.611151161WSep 7 · 19:25O. Melashenko1.401111113P. Ishchyk2.757990WSep 7 · 17:55O. Melashenko1.671211113V. Kobets2.1010530LSep 7 · 16:25O. Melashenko1.5713570O. Naida2.251511113WSep 7 · 14:55O. Melashenko2.101311133S. Khandetskyi1.67116110WSep 7 · 13:25O. Melashenko2.2011611113H. Kulishov1.61711991LSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590
S. Skachenko10
WSep 9 · 15:25V. Kobets2.387712111S. Skachenko1.53111110133WSep 9 · 13:25S. Khandetskyi2.3813690S. Skachenko1.531511113LSep 8 · 19:25T. Ponomarenko2.38131114103S. Skachenko1.531561281LSep 8 · 18:25S. Skachenko1.838790S. Abalmaz1.831111113WSep 8 · 17:25S. Skachenko2.10111113113D. Derevynskyi1.67651561WSep 8 · 13:55S. Skachenko1.8311115123R. Gnoevoy1.838611101LSep 8 · 04:25R. Gnoevoy1.801111117113S. Skachenko1.9113381192WSep 8 · 02:55S. Skachenko1.83126114123S. Abalmaz1.831011711102WSep 8 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.0011113892S. Skachenko1.73981111113WSep 7 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.6712791272S. Skachenko2.1010111110113
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