TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100947
Played Sep 9Finished
Oleksandr Melashenko
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311115611116––
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:17 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeKostiantyn Hrynenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingOleksandr Melashenko above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 74 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Kostiantyn Hrynenko at 58.9%
74 points played in total.
H2H Oleksandr Melashenko 32–38 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 32 of their 70 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 21:17What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hrynenko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-38 in 70
Hrynenko
Wrong
gap of 6 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Melashenko 1548 vs Hrynenko 1683
Hrynenko
Wrong
both rated, 135 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Melashenko 80% vs Hrynenko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Melashenko 70% vs Hrynenko 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Melashenko +2 · Hrynenko +3
Hrynenko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Hrynenko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMelashenko 2.20 / Hrynenko 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Hrynenko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13100947
Melashenko2.20
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 113 of 287
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 94
Hrynenko1.61
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite59% won 60 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it82% 51 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMelashenko3wins
AwayHrynenko7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHrynenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMelashenko75%3 of 4
AwayHrynenko100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Melashenko4Hrynenko6n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S2Melashenko3Hrynenko7n = 10Hrynenko took 7 of 10
S3Melashenko5Hrynenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Melashenko3Hrynenko5n = 8Hrynenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMelashenkoHrynenkoM − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.238.8−4.6per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMelashenkoHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime438 / 856 vs 424 / 90351.2%47%438 / 856 vs 424 / 903Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrynenkoMelashenko 2.20/Hrynenko 1.61
Miss
What we said
58.9%
Hrynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Melashenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 23:35O. Melashenko—111113113K. Hrynenko—471571
LSep 1 · 22:35O. Melashenko—591141K. Hrynenko—11119113
LAug 31 · 15:25O. Melashenko—111112952K. Hrynenko—1371011113
LAug 29 · 22:05O. Melashenko—571141K. Hrynenko—11117113
LAug 25 · 14:55O. Melashenko—7460K. Hrynenko—1111113
LAug 22 · 23:05O. Melashenko—10880K. Hrynenko—1211113
WAug 22 · 03:35O. Melashenko—11911113K. Hrynenko—811491
WAug 17 · 19:55O. Melashenko—15112113K. Hrynenko—1361171
LAug 15 · 01:05O. Melashenko—11611101K. Hrynenko—13115123
LAug 8 · 03:35O. Melashenko—133771K. Hrynenko—111111113
O. Melashenko10
WSep 7 · 19:25O. Melashenko1.401111113P. Ishchyk2.757990WSep 7 · 17:55O. Melashenko1.671211113V. Kobets2.1010530LSep 7 · 16:25O. Melashenko1.5713570O. Naida2.251511113WSep 7 · 14:55O. Melashenko2.101311133S. Khandetskyi1.67116110WSep 7 · 13:25O. Melashenko2.2011611113H. Kulishov1.61711991LSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590WSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971WSep 9 · 01:35D. Rehotun1.832660K. Hrynenko1.831111113WSep 9 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.301112153D. Us3.40010130LSep 8 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi2.50111014113K. Hrynenko1.503121291WSep 8 · 22:05K. Hrynenko1.441111113S. Pitsyk2.636740WSep 8 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.001112310133S. Abalmaz1.737101112112LSep 8 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.731111113K. Hrynenko2.006980LSep 8 · 24:55K. Hrynenko2.0011113892S. Skachenko1.73981111113WSep 7 · 23:55D. Derevynskyi1.44831191K. Hrynenko2.6311119113WSep 6 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.671111113O. Melashenko2.105590
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