TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13101068
Played Sep 9Finished
Dmytro Rehotun
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1166117111012––
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDmytro Rehotun to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Rehotun above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 74 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Dmytro Rehotun at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Rehotun 32–22 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 22 of their 54 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:57What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hrynenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
32-22 in 54
Rehotun
Wrong
gap of 10 in 54, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rehotun 1387 vs Hrynenko 1672
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 284 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rehotun 20% vs Hrynenko 80%
Hrynenko
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rehotun 40% vs Hrynenko 60%
Hrynenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rehotun -2 · Hrynenko +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Hrynenko) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRehotun 2.20 / Hrynenko 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Hrynenko)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13101068
Rehotun2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Hrynenko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 60 of 101
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it82% 51 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRehotun5wins
AwayHrynenko5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRehotun100%3 of 3
AwayHrynenko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rehotun3Hrynenko7n = 10Hrynenko took 7 of 10
S2Rehotun4Hrynenko6n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S3Rehotun5Hrynenko5n = 10split evenly
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away550%
These 10 meetings
MetricRehotunHrynenkoR − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match29.030.9−1.9per matchSweeps35−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRehotunHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime202 / 405 vs 425 / 90549.9%47%202 / 405 vs 425 / 905Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrynenkoRehotun 2.20/Hrynenko 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Hrynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 01:35D. Rehotun—2660K. Hrynenko—1111113
WSep 2 · 02:35D. Rehotun—1114113K. Hrynenko—81290
LAug 31 · 17:25D. Rehotun—6780K. Hrynenko—1111113
WMar 10 · 14:55D. Rehotun—91112113K. Hrynenko—1181051
LMar 3 · 14:25D. Rehotun—12860K. Hrynenko—1411113
WFeb 4 · 04:25D. Rehotun—971111113K. Hrynenko—11115822
LJan 27 · 24:55D. Rehotun—8690K. Hrynenko—1111113
WJan 6 · 16:05D. Rehotun—1111113K. Hrynenko—8670
LJan 5 · 22:25D. Rehotun—5250K. Hrynenko—1111113
WJan 1 · 07:05D. Rehotun—1111113K. Hrynenko—9650
D. Rehotun10
LSep 9 · 15:55O. Melashenko1.40137116113D. Rehotun2.75111131182LSep 9 · 14:25D. Rehotun2.0010610V. Kobets1.731211113WSep 9 · 03:05D. Rehotun2.63611811123S. Khandetskyi1.44112118102LSep 9 · 01:35D. Rehotun1.832660K. Hrynenko1.831111113LSep 9 · 24:05D. Rehotun1.9177111192S. Pitsyk1.80111187113WSep 8 · 22:35D. Rehotun1.671111113D. Us2.108990LSep 8 · 21:05D. Rehotun1.735250O. Naida2.001111113WSep 2 · 03:35Y. Stepanchuk2.1051161172D. Rehotun1.67119115113WSep 2 · 02:35K. Hrynenko1.6181290D. Rehotun2.201114113LSep 2 · 01:05S. Khandetskyi1.5711811123D. Rehotun2.256117101
K. Hrynenko10
WSep 9 · 14:55S. Khandetskyi2.6311981162K. Hrynenko1.44511119113LSep 9 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.2013116113K. Hrynenko1.611151161WSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971WSep 9 · 01:35D. Rehotun1.832660K. Hrynenko1.831111113WSep 9 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.301112153D. Us3.40010130LSep 8 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi2.50111014113K. Hrynenko1.503121291WSep 8 · 22:05K. Hrynenko1.441111113S. Pitsyk2.636740WSep 8 · 03:55K. Hrynenko2.001112310133S. Abalmaz1.737101112112LSep 8 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.731111113K. Hrynenko2.006980LSep 2 · 02:35K. Hrynenko1.6181290D. Rehotun2.201114113
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