TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111403
Played Sep 11Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511911711––––
Valentyn Lobas
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:22 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Valentyn Lobas below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Point 54 set 3, 7-11 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 64.1%
54 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 6–18 Valentyn Lobas Dmytro Derevynskyi has won 6 of their 24 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:22What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-18 in 24
Lobas
Correct
gap of 12 in 24, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1571 vs Lobas 1663
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 92 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 60% vs Lobas 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 50% vs Lobas 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi -2 · Lobas -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Lobas) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 2.50 / Lobas 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Lobas)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111403
Derevynskyi2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 43 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back30% 16 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Lobas1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 109 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it79% 88 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi2wins
AwayLobas8wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLobas leads 8–2, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi0%0 of 3
AwayLobas71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi3Lobas7n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S2Derevynskyi5Lobas5n = 10split evenly
S3Derevynskyi2Lobas8n = 10Lobas took 8 of 10
S4Derevynskyi3Lobas5n = 8Lobas took 5 of 8
S5Derevynskyi1Lobas2n = 3Lobas took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiLobasD − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.041.0−5.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiLobasBasisWin rate · lifetime478 / 873 vs 230 / 40154.8%57.4%478 / 873 vs 230 / 401Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasDerevynskyi 2.50/Lobas 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi215970V. Lobas331111113
LSep 4 · 23:05D. Derevynskyi4211116772V. Lobas46761111113
LAug 28 · 23:05D. Derevynskyi31115961V. Lobas4181111113
LAug 22 · 02:05D. Derevynskyi47116111182V. Lobas48131149113
LAug 14 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi4291111111V. Lobas4511813133
LAug 8 · 22:35D. Derevynskyi2661190V. Lobas351113113
LJul 31 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi294111221V. Lobas4411814113
LJul 11 · 02:05D. Derevynskyi3311102101V. Lobas4381211123
WJun 27 · 21:05D. Derevynskyi46911411113V. Lobas4411911492
WJun 19 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi43101111113V. Lobas31128741
D. Derevynskyi10
LSep 12 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi1.571211138102O. Melashenko2.251491111123LSep 12 · 01:35Y. Krol2.631211133D. Derevynskyi1.44105110WSep 12 · 24:35D. Derevynskyi2.631111113O. Gomilko1.445760WSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50711791D. Derevynskyi1.5011711113LSep 11 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi1.73771191S. Abalmaz2.0011119113LSep 11 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.8011711113D. Derevynskyi1.91711791WSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110WSep 10 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy2.00910131162D. Derevynskyi1.731112115113WSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda1.807770D. Derevynskyi1.911111113LSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980
V. Lobas10
LSep 13 · 24:05V. Lobas1.671110481Y. Krol2.1061211113WSep 12 · 22:35V. Lobas1.361411113O. Melashenko3.0012870WSep 12 · 21:05V. Lobas1.3612117113M. Marchuk3.001061131WSep 12 · 04:05V. Lobas1.831111113O. Gomilko1.839980WSep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.38711991V. Lobas1.5311911113WSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol2.1041111792V. Lobas1.67118311113WSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192
Upcoming Matches
D. Derevynskyi
Nothing scheduled
V. Lobas
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