TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111023
Played Sep 12Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
115117116––––
Oleksandr Gomilko
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched — 66.1% is still 66.1%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Gomilko to win
66.1%
66.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Oleksandr Gomilko below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Oleksandr Gomilko at 66.1%
51 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 31–65 Oleksandr Gomilko Dmytro Derevynskyi has won 31 of their 96 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:03What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Gomilko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
31-65 in 96
Gomilko
Wrong
gap of 34 in 96, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1601 vs Gomilko 1622
Gomilko
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 40% vs Gomilko 80%
Gomilko
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 40% vs Gomilko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi +1 · Gomilko +3
Gomilko
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Gomilko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gomilko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 2.63 / Gomilko 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Gomilko)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111023
Derevynskyi2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 43 of 101
Down 0–1, comes back30% 16 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Gomilko1.44
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 117 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it93% 52 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it76% 85 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi3wins
AwayGomilko7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGomilko leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi40%2 of 5
AwayGomilko80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi5Gomilko5n = 10split evenly
S2Derevynskyi6Gomilko4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Derevynskyi4Gomilko6n = 10Gomilko took 6 of 10
S4Derevynskyi2Gomilko6n = 8Gomilko took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiGomilkoD − GBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.438.2−1.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiGomilkoBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 875 vs 321 / 56754.9%56.6%480 / 875 vs 321 / 567Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GomilkoDerevynskyi 2.63/Gomilko 1.44
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
65.7%
Gomilko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 24:35D. Derevynskyi—1111113O. Gomilko—5760
WSep 5 · 02:35D. Derevynskyi—81111113O. Gomilko—114981
LAug 29 · 02:35D. Derevynskyi—861131O. Gomilko—11117113
LAug 21 · 21:35D. Derevynskyi—115781O. Gomilko—71111113
LAug 15 · 24:35D. Derevynskyi—121060O. Gomilko—1412113
LAug 9 · 02:35D. Derevynskyi—7111231O. Gomilko—11814113
LAug 1 · 24:35D. Derevynskyi—11119552O. Gomilko—57111173
WJul 26 · 01:05D. Derevynskyi—11117113O. Gomilko—871121
LJul 10 · 21:35D. Derevynskyi—11138161O. Gomilko—81511183
LJun 28 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi—311111062O. Gomilko—118812113
D. Derevynskyi10
LSep 12 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi1.571211138102O. Melashenko2.251491111123LSep 12 · 01:35Y. Krol2.631211133D. Derevynskyi1.44105110WSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50711791D. Derevynskyi1.5011711113LSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 11 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi1.73771191S. Abalmaz2.0011119113LSep 11 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.8011711113D. Derevynskyi1.91711791WSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110WSep 10 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy2.00910131162D. Derevynskyi1.731112115113WSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda1.807770D. Derevynskyi1.911111113LSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980
O. Gomilko10
WSep 12 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.8091111113O. Melashenko1.91113771WSep 11 · 22:35Y. Krol2.101112912102O. Gomilko1.679141110123WSep 11 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.2511101051O. Gomilko1.5781212113WSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143LSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123WSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451LSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113LSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113WSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123LSep 5 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.50114981D. Derevynskyi2.5081111113
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