TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111051
Played Sep 12Finished
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
121411913118111012
Oleksandr Melashenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 7Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 7
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:03 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDmytro Derevynskyi above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 13-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 111 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 60.1%
111 points played in total.
H2H Dmytro Derevynskyi 48–25 Oleksandr Melashenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 25 of their 73 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:03What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Derevynskyi
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
48-25 in 73
Derevynskyi
Wrong
gap of 23 in 73, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Derevynskyi 1586 vs Melashenko 1489
Derevynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Derevynskyi 40% vs Melashenko 0%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Derevynskyi 50% vs Melashenko 30%
Derevynskyi
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Derevynskyi -1 · Melashenko -5
Melashenko
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDerevynskyi 1.57 / Melashenko 2.25
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Derevynskyi)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111051
Derevynskyi1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 201 of 345
Up 2–0, closes it91% 95 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it72% 143 of 198
Melashenko2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 7
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 113 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDerevynskyi8wins
AwayMelashenko2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDerevynskyi66.7%4 of 6
AwayMelashenko0%0 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Derevynskyi6Melashenko4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Derevynskyi6Melashenko4n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S3Derevynskyi4Melashenko6n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S4Derevynskyi6Melashenko3n = 9Derevynskyi took 6 of 9
S5Derevynskyi4Melashenko0n = 4Derevynskyi took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricDerevynskyiMelashenkoD − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.036.7+5.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDerevynskyiMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime480 / 876 vs 433 / 85654.8%50.6%480 / 876 vs 433 / 856Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiDerevynskyi 1.57/Melashenko 2.25
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.9%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Melashenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi—111119113O. Melashenko—78111172
WSep 2 · 24:05D. Derevynskyi—11711113O. Melashenko—611561
WAug 22 · 01:05D. Derevynskyi—101111113O. Melashenko—125931
WAug 14 · 23:35D. Derevynskyi—1011812113O. Melashenko—129111052
LAug 5 · 18:25D. Derevynskyi—138981O. Melashenko—111111113
WJul 29 · 13:55D. Derevynskyi—1111113O. Melashenko—6870
WJul 27 · 02:55D. Derevynskyi—117711113O. Melashenko—91111962
LJul 25 · 23:35D. Derevynskyi—115551O. Melashenko—31111113
WJul 23 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi—101111113O. Melashenko—124961
WJul 20 · 21:35D. Derevynskyi—11111111113O. Melashenko—13713352
D. Derevynskyi10
LSep 12 · 01:35Y. Krol2.631211133D. Derevynskyi1.44105110WSep 12 · 24:35D. Derevynskyi2.631111113O. Gomilko1.445760WSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50711791D. Derevynskyi1.5011711113LSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 11 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi1.73771191S. Abalmaz2.0011119113LSep 11 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.8011711113D. Derevynskyi1.91711791WSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110WSep 10 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy2.00910131162D. Derevynskyi1.731112115113WSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda1.807770D. Derevynskyi1.911111113LSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980
O. Melashenko10
LSep 12 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.8091111113O. Melashenko1.91113771LSep 12 · 01:05K. Hrynenko1.6161111113O. Melashenko2.20118241LSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440LSep 11 · 21:05Y. Krol1.301111153O. Melashenko3.4079130LSep 9 · 19:25S. Khandetskyi1.831111113O. Melashenko1.838950LSep 9 · 18:25O. Melashenko1.5711711782V. Kobets2.25811611113LSep 9 · 17:25O. Melashenko2.0051190S. Skachenko1.731113113WSep 9 · 15:55O. Melashenko1.40137116113D. Rehotun2.75111131182WSep 9 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.2013116113K. Hrynenko1.611151161WSep 7 · 19:25O. Melashenko1.401111113P. Ishchyk2.757990
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