TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13106354
Played Sep 11Finished
Vitalii Khamurda
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117711117119––
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVitalii Khamurda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVitalii Khamurda above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Vitalii Khamurda at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Vitalii Khamurda 56–50 Dmytro Derevynskyi Dmytro Derevynskyi has won 50 of their 106 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:13What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Khamurda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-50 in 106
Khamurda
Correct
gap of 6 in 106, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Khamurda 1596 vs Derevynskyi 1607
Derevynskyi
Wrong
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Khamurda 60% vs Derevynskyi 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Khamurda 50% vs Derevynskyi 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Khamurda +2 · Derevynskyi +3
Derevynskyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Khamurda)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKhamurda 1.80 / Derevynskyi 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Khamurda)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13106354
Khamurda1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 113 of 213
Up 2–0, closes it98% 51 of 52
Up 1–0, closes it75% 67 of 89
Derevynskyi1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog43% won 43 of 100
Down 0–1, comes back31% 16 of 52
Down 0–2, comes back13% 3 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKhamurda5wins
AwayDerevynskyi5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKhamurdan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayDerevynskyi37.5%3 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Khamurda2Derevynskyi8n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S2Khamurda5Derevynskyi5n = 10split evenly
S3Khamurda4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S4Khamurda5Derevynskyi3n = 8Khamurda took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKhamurdaDerevynskyiK − DBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match37.639.7−2.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKhamurdaDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime467 / 876 vs 478 / 87053.3%54.9%467 / 876 vs 478 / 870Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.139.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KhamurdaKhamurda 1.80/Derevynskyi 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Khamurda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Khamurda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda—1199141D. Derevynskyi—91111163
LSep 3 · 22:55V. Khamurda—117681D. Derevynskyi—81111113
WAug 31 · 22:55V. Khamurda—611913113D. Derevynskyi—118111132
WAug 31 · 01:25V. Khamurda—41211113D. Derevynskyi—1110371
WAug 26 · 24:05V. Khamurda—71111113D. Derevynskyi—119691
WAug 24 · 21:55V. Khamurda—81212113D. Derevynskyi—11101041
LAug 18 · 01:25V. Khamurda—67140D. Derevynskyi—1111163
LAug 14 · 03:25V. Khamurda—410120D. Derevynskyi—1112143
WAug 3 · 23:55V. Khamurda—411811113D. Derevynskyi—11811992
LAug 1 · 03:35V. Khamurda—751191D. Derevynskyi—11118113
V. Khamurda10
WSep 10 · 22:55V. Khamurda2.50111111113S. Abalmaz1.50561381WSep 10 · 21:25V. Khamurda1.83391111113T. Ponomarenko1.8311118562LSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda1.807770D. Derevynskyi1.911111113LSep 8 · 17:55T. Ponomarenko2.00111175113V. Khamurda1.7388111192WSep 8 · 16:55V. Khamurda1.611311113R. Gnoevoy2.2011980WSep 8 · 14:25V. Khamurda2.63111110113S. Abalmaz1.44671211LSep 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.831199141D. Derevynskyi1.8391111163WSep 8 · 01:55V. Khamurda1.731111113K. Hrynenko2.006980LSep 8 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.73811971R. Gnoevoy2.0011811113LSep 7 · 22:55V. Khamurda1.6712791272S. Skachenko2.1010111110113
D. Derevynskyi10
WSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110WSep 10 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy2.00910131162D. Derevynskyi1.731112115113WSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda1.807770D. Derevynskyi1.911111113LSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980LSep 8 · 17:25S. Skachenko2.10111113113D. Derevynskyi1.67651561LSep 8 · 15:25S. Abalmaz2.1091111113D. Derevynskyi1.67112341WSep 8 · 13:25T. Ponomarenko2.00591251D. Derevynskyi1.73111110113WSep 8 · 03:25V. Khamurda1.831199141D. Derevynskyi1.8391111163WSep 8 · 02:25D. Derevynskyi1.801111113R. Gnoevoy1.919760LSep 8 · 01:25D. Derevynskyi1.6111971192S. Abalmaz2.20211115113
Upcoming Matches
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