TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13112202
Played Sep 12Finished
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
611118112114––
Oleksandr Melashenko
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:52 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeKostiantyn Hrynenko to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-2
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 64 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Kostiantyn Hrynenko at 58.9%
64 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 38–32 Oleksandr Melashenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 32 of their 70 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 24:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Hrynenko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
38-32 in 70
Hrynenko
Correct
gap of 6 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1633 vs Melashenko 1505
Hrynenko
Correct
both rated, 128 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 40% vs Melashenko 0%
Hrynenko
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 60% vs Melashenko 40%
Hrynenko
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko -3 · Melashenko -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Hrynenko) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 1.61 / Melashenko 2.20
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Hrynenko)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13112202
Hrynenko1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 62 of 105
Up 2–0, closes it93% 39 of 42
Up 1–0, closes it82% 51 of 62
Melashenko2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 113 of 286
Down 0–1, comes back23% 40 of 178
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko7wins
AwayMelashenko3wins
1 of 10 to a deciderHrynenko leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko100%6 of 6
AwayMelashenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko6Melashenko4n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S2Hrynenko7Melashenko3n = 10Hrynenko took 7 of 10
S3Hrynenko5Melashenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Hrynenko5Melashenko3n = 8Hrynenko took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoMelashenkoH − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match38.834.2+4.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 900 vs 434 / 85646.8%50.7%421 / 900 vs 434 / 856Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HrynenkoHrynenko 1.61/Melashenko 2.20
Hit
What we said
60.9%
Hrynenko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Hrynenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 23:35K. Hrynenko—471571O. Melashenko—111113113
WSep 1 · 22:35K. Hrynenko—11119113O. Melashenko—591141
WAug 31 · 15:25K. Hrynenko—1371011113O. Melashenko—111112952
WAug 29 · 22:05K. Hrynenko—11117113O. Melashenko—571141
WAug 25 · 14:55K. Hrynenko—1111113O. Melashenko—7460
WAug 22 · 23:05K. Hrynenko—1211113O. Melashenko—10880
LAug 22 · 03:35K. Hrynenko—811491O. Melashenko—11911113
LAug 17 · 19:55K. Hrynenko—1361171O. Melashenko—15112113
WAug 15 · 01:05K. Hrynenko—13115123O. Melashenko—11611101
WAug 8 · 03:35K. Hrynenko—111111113O. Melashenko—133771
K. Hrynenko10
LSep 12 · 03:05Y. Krol1.6711614113K. Hrynenko2.106111281LSep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.38711991V. Lobas1.5311911113LSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50711791D. Derevynskyi1.5011711113LSep 11 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.2511101051O. Gomilko1.5781212113LSep 9 · 20:25V. Kobets4.501111113K. Hrynenko1.179750WSep 9 · 18:55K. Hrynenko2.104111012133S. Skachenko1.671191210112WSep 9 · 16:55D. Rehotun2.201167101K. Hrynenko1.6161111123WSep 9 · 14:55S. Khandetskyi2.6311981162K. Hrynenko1.44511119113LSep 9 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.2013116113K. Hrynenko1.611151161WSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971
O. Melashenko10
WSep 12 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi1.571211138102O. Melashenko2.251491111123LSep 12 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.8091111113O. Melashenko1.91113771LSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440LSep 11 · 21:05Y. Krol1.301111153O. Melashenko3.4079130LSep 9 · 19:25S. Khandetskyi1.831111113O. Melashenko1.838950LSep 9 · 18:25O. Melashenko1.5711711782V. Kobets2.25811611113LSep 9 · 17:25O. Melashenko2.0051190S. Skachenko1.731113113WSep 9 · 15:55O. Melashenko1.40137116113D. Rehotun2.75111131182WSep 9 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.2013116113K. Hrynenko1.611151161WSep 7 · 19:25O. Melashenko1.401111113P. Ishchyk2.757990
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