TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111139
Played Sep 11Finished
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711117711911––
Dmytro Derevynskyi
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:23 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeDmytro Derevynskyi to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Dmytro Derevynskyi below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 74 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Dmytro Derevynskyi at 60.1%
74 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 62–106 Dmytro Derevynskyi Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 62 of their 168 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:23What took a side3 for · 3 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Derevynskyi
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
62-106 in 168
Derevynskyi
Correct
gap of 44 in 168, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1648 vs Derevynskyi 1571
Hrynenko
Wrong
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 60% vs Derevynskyi 40%
Hrynenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 60% vs Derevynskyi 40%
Hrynenko
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko -2 · Derevynskyi -3
Derevynskyi
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Derevynskyi)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Derevynskyi form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 2.50 / Derevynskyi 1.50
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Derevynskyi)-2.4pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13111139
Hrynenko2.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 156 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 185
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 97
Derevynskyi1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 201 of 345
Up 2–0, closes it91% 95 of 105
Up 1–0, closes it72% 143 of 198
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko3wins
AwayDerevynskyi7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderDerevynskyi leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko50%2 of 4
AwayDerevynskyi83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko4Derevynskyi6n = 10Derevynskyi took 6 of 10
S2Hrynenko2Derevynskyi8n = 10Derevynskyi took 8 of 10
S3Hrynenko3Derevynskyi7n = 10Derevynskyi took 7 of 10
S4Hrynenko2Derevynskyi4n = 6Derevynskyi took 4 of 6
S5Hrynenko2Derevynskyi1n = 3Hrynenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoDerevynskyiH − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match34.339.9−5.6per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoDerevynskyiBasisWin rate · lifetime421 / 899 vs 478 / 87346.8%54.8%421 / 899 vs 478 / 873Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DerevynskyiHrynenko 2.50/Derevynskyi 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.1%
Derevynskyi · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Derevynskyi won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 12 · 02:35K. Hrynenko—98100D. Derevynskyi—1111123
LAug 5 · 16:25K. Hrynenko—7780D. Derevynskyi—1111113
LAug 4 · 15:25K. Hrynenko—13117662D. Derevynskyi—1181111113
WJul 29 · 18:55K. Hrynenko—11111113D. Derevynskyi—117581
WJul 27 · 04:25K. Hrynenko—117136113D. Derevynskyi—711111192
LJul 22 · 23:05K. Hrynenko—11118101D. Derevynskyi—71311123
LJul 21 · 01:03K. Hrynenko—71070D. Derevynskyi—1112113
WJul 17 · 02:55K. Hrynenko—119911113D. Derevynskyi—91111992
LJul 15 · 18:55K. Hrynenko—5980D. Derevynskyi—1111113
LJul 8 · 16:25K. Hrynenko—6511101D. Derevynskyi—11117123
K. Hrynenko10
LSep 11 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.2511101051O. Gomilko1.5781212113LSep 9 · 20:25V. Kobets4.501111113K. Hrynenko1.179750WSep 9 · 18:55K. Hrynenko2.104111012133S. Skachenko1.671191210112WSep 9 · 16:55D. Rehotun2.201167101K. Hrynenko1.6161111123WSep 9 · 14:55S. Khandetskyi2.6311981162K. Hrynenko1.44511119113LSep 9 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.2013116113K. Hrynenko1.611151161WSep 9 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.8311611113O. Naida1.83611971WSep 9 · 01:35D. Rehotun1.832660K. Hrynenko1.831111113WSep 9 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.301112153D. Us3.40010130LSep 8 · 23:35S. Khandetskyi2.50111014113K. Hrynenko1.503121291
D. Derevynskyi10
LSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 11 · 04:25D. Derevynskyi1.73771191S. Abalmaz2.0011119113LSep 11 · 24:25V. Khamurda1.8011711113D. Derevynskyi1.91711791WSep 10 · 23:25D. Derevynskyi1.731111133T. Ponomarenko2.0087110WSep 10 · 22:25R. Gnoevoy2.00910131162D. Derevynskyi1.731112115113WSep 8 · 19:55V. Khamurda1.807770D. Derevynskyi1.911111113LSep 8 · 18:55R. Gnoevoy1.911111113D. Derevynskyi1.808980LSep 8 · 17:25S. Skachenko2.10111113113D. Derevynskyi1.67651561LSep 8 · 15:25S. Abalmaz2.1091111113D. Derevynskyi1.67112341WSep 8 · 13:25T. Ponomarenko2.00591251D. Derevynskyi1.73111110113
Upcoming Matches
K. Hrynenko
Sep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.38V. Lobas1.53—Sep 12 · 03:05K. Hrynenko2.10Y. Krol1.67—Sep 12 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.10Y. Krol1.67—Sep 12 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.20O. Gomilko1.61—Sep 13 · 24:35K. Hrynenko1.61O. Melashenko2.20—Sep 13 · 01:35K. Hrynenko2.38V. Lobas1.53—Sep 13 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.67M. Marchuk2.10—
D. Derevynskyi
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