TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111491
Played Sep 12Finished
Yan Krol
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1166111412118––
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYan Krol to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYan Krol above · Kostiantyn Hrynenko below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 14-12
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 79 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Yan Krol at 54.0%
79 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 56–41 Kostiantyn Hrynenko Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 41 of their 97 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Krol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
56-41 in 97
Krol
Correct
gap of 15 in 97, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1580 vs Hrynenko 1630
Hrynenko
Wrong
both rated, 49 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 60% vs Hrynenko 20%
Krol
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 40% vs Hrynenko 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol +1 · Hrynenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krol)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 1.67 / Hrynenko 2.10
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krol)-1.8pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13111491
Krol1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 74 of 122
Up 2–0, closes it93% 27 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it79% 50 of 63
Hrynenko2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog44% won 156 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back27% 49 of 185
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol5wins
AwayHrynenko5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrol66.7%4 of 6
AwayHrynenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol6Hrynenko4n = 10Krol took 6 of 10
S2Krol4Hrynenko6n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S3Krol3Hrynenko7n = 10Hrynenko took 7 of 10
S4Krol4Hrynenko3n = 7Krol took 4 of 7
S5Krol3Hrynenko2n = 5Krol took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolHrynenkoK − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.039.6+0.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolHrynenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime297 / 587 vs 422 / 90250.6%46.8%297 / 587 vs 422 / 902Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.137.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrolKrol 1.67/Hrynenko 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krol · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 22:05Y. Krol—6990K. Hrynenko—1111113
LSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol—1011461K. Hrynenko—12511113
LAug 30 · 04:05Y. Krol—1010110K. Hrynenko—1212133
WAug 29 · 03:05Y. Krol—1110118113K. Hrynenko—81251162
WAug 23 · 02:35Y. Krol—511711113K. Hrynenko—11611672
WAug 22 · 01:35Y. Krol—111110113K. Hrynenko—971291
WAug 16 · 24:35Y. Krol—1113133K. Hrynenko—411110
LAug 14 · 21:05Y. Krol—11851152K. Hrynenko—411119113
LAug 8 · 01:35Y. Krol—118111282K. Hrynenko—811414113
WAug 1 · 22:05Y. Krol—1151011113K. Hrynenko—91112872
Y. Krol10
WSep 12 · 01:35Y. Krol2.631211133D. Derevynskyi1.44105110LSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol2.1041111792V. Lobas1.67118311113LSep 11 · 22:35Y. Krol2.101112912102O. Gomilko1.679141110123WSep 11 · 21:05Y. Krol1.301111153O. Melashenko3.4079130WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990LSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113
K. Hrynenko10
LSep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.38711991V. Lobas1.5311911113WSep 12 · 01:05K. Hrynenko1.6161111113O. Melashenko2.20118241LSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50711791D. Derevynskyi1.5011711113LSep 11 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.2511101051O. Gomilko1.5781212113LSep 9 · 20:25V. Kobets4.501111113K. Hrynenko1.179750WSep 9 · 18:55K. Hrynenko2.104111012133S. Skachenko1.671191210112WSep 9 · 16:55D. Rehotun2.201167101K. Hrynenko1.6161111123WSep 9 · 14:55S. Khandetskyi2.6311981162K. Hrynenko1.44511119113WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990WSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113
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