TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111833
Played Sep 11Finished
Yan Krol
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119121491112101012
Oleksandr Gomilko
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:53 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeOleksandr Gomilko to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYan Krol above · Oleksandr Gomilko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 110 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Oleksandr Gomilko at 56.2%
110 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 76–92 Oleksandr Gomilko Yan Krol has won 76 of their 168 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:53What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Gomilko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
76-92 in 168
Gomilko
Correct
gap of 16 in 168, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1582 vs Gomilko 1615
Gomilko
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 60% vs Gomilko 40%
Krol
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 50% vs Gomilko 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol +3 · Gomilko +1
Krol
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Gomilko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gomilko form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 2.10 / Gomilko 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Gomilko)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111833
Krol2.10
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 66 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back28% 26 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Gomilko1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 117 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it93% 52 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it76% 85 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol5wins
AwayGomilko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrol60%3 of 5
AwayGomilko60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol5Gomilko5n = 10split evenly
S2Krol5Gomilko5n = 10split evenly
S3Krol5Gomilko5n = 10split evenly
S4Krol4Gomilko3n = 7Krol took 4 of 7
S5Krol1Gomilko2n = 3Gomilko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolGomilkoK − GBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.337.5+0.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolGomilkoBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 584 vs 321 / 57050.7%56.3%296 / 584 vs 321 / 570Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GomilkoKrol 2.10/Gomilko 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Gomilko · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Gomilko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 6 · 02:05Y. Krol4412911123O. Gomilko3510114101
WSep 4 · 22:35Y. Krol341112113O. Gomilko2561090
LAug 29 · 21:35Y. Krol259970O. Gomilko331111113
LAug 28 · 22:35Y. Krol248790O. Gomilko331111113
LAug 22 · 21:35Y. Krol26711441O. Gomilko4011711113
WAug 21 · 22:35Y. Krol4281111123O. Gomilko351177101
LAug 16 · 01:35Y. Krol471111123102O. Gomilko515131011123
WAug 14 · 22:35Y. Krol3912115113O. Gomilko341071161
LAug 8 · 23:05Y. Krol50119111092O. Gomilko43411512113
WAug 8 · 24:05Y. Krol528111111113O. Gomilko4611813592
Y. Krol10
WSep 13 · 24:05V. Lobas1.671110481Y. Krol2.1061211113LSep 12 · 23:05Y. Krol1.801161061M. Marchuk1.9161112113WSep 12 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.108690Y. Krol1.671111113WSep 12 · 03:05Y. Krol1.6711614113K. Hrynenko2.106111281WSep 12 · 01:35Y. Krol2.631211133D. Derevynskyi1.44105110LSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol2.1041111792V. Lobas1.67118311113WSep 11 · 21:05Y. Krol1.301111153O. Melashenko3.4079130WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192
O. Gomilko10
WSep 13 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.8311911113M. Marchuk1.83811151LSep 12 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61311971K. Hrynenko2.2011311113WSep 12 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.831111113O. Melashenko1.836770LSep 12 · 04:05V. Lobas1.831111113O. Gomilko1.839980WSep 12 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.8091111113O. Melashenko1.91113771LSep 12 · 24:35D. Derevynskyi2.631111113O. Gomilko1.445760WSep 11 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.2511101051O. Gomilko1.5781212113WSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143LSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123WSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451
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