TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117381
Played Sep 12Finished
Kostiantyn Hrynenko
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811611911––––
Yan Krol
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeYan Krol to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKostiantyn Hrynenko above · Yan Krol below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Yan Krol at 54.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Kostiantyn Hrynenko 41–57 Yan Krol Kostiantyn Hrynenko has won 41 of their 98 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:21What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Krol
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
41-57 in 98
Krol
Correct
gap of 16 in 98, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Hrynenko 1600 vs Krol 1608
Krol
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Hrynenko 20% vs Krol 60%
Krol
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Hrynenko 40% vs Krol 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Hrynenko -2 · Krol +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Krol) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Hrynenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHrynenko 2.10 / Krol 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Krol)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13117381
Hrynenko2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As underdog44% won 154 of 354
Down 0–1, comes back26% 49 of 187
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 96
Krol1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite61% won 75 of 123
Up 2–0, closes it93% 28 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it80% 51 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHrynenko5wins
AwayKrol5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHrynenko75%3 of 4
AwayKrol66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Hrynenko4Krol6n = 10Krol took 6 of 10
S2Hrynenko6Krol4n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S3Hrynenko6Krol4n = 10Hrynenko took 6 of 10
S4Hrynenko3Krol4n = 7Krol took 4 of 7
S5Hrynenko2Krol2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHrynenkoKrolH − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.639.4−0.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHrynenkoKrolBasisWin rate · lifetime422 / 904 vs 299 / 58846.7%50.9%422 / 904 vs 299 / 588Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrolHrynenko 2.10/Krol 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Krol · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Krol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 03:05K. Hrynenko376111281Y. Krol4211614113
WSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko331111113Y. Krol246990
WSep 5 · 03:05K. Hrynenko3912511113Y. Krol311011461
WAug 30 · 04:05K. Hrynenko371212133Y. Krol311010110
LAug 29 · 03:05K. Hrynenko4281251162Y. Krol511110118113
LAug 23 · 02:35K. Hrynenko4111611672Y. Krol45511711113
LAug 22 · 01:35K. Hrynenko37971291Y. Krol43111110113
LAug 16 · 24:35K. Hrynenko26411110Y. Krol371113133
WAug 14 · 21:05K. Hrynenko46411119113Y. Krol4011851152
WAug 8 · 01:35K. Hrynenko48811414113Y. Krol50118111282
K. Hrynenko10
LSep 12 · 03:05Y. Krol1.6711614113K. Hrynenko2.106111281LSep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.38711991V. Lobas1.5311911113WSep 12 · 01:05K. Hrynenko1.6161111113O. Melashenko2.20118241LSep 11 · 23:35K. Hrynenko2.50711791D. Derevynskyi1.5011711113LSep 11 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.2511101051O. Gomilko1.5781212113LSep 9 · 20:25V. Kobets4.501111113K. Hrynenko1.179750WSep 9 · 18:55K. Hrynenko2.104111012133S. Skachenko1.671191210112WSep 9 · 16:55D. Rehotun2.201167101K. Hrynenko1.6161111123WSep 9 · 14:55S. Khandetskyi2.6311981162K. Hrynenko1.44511119113LSep 9 · 13:55O. Melashenko2.2013116113K. Hrynenko1.611151161
Y. Krol10
WSep 12 · 03:05Y. Krol1.6711614113K. Hrynenko2.106111281WSep 12 · 01:35Y. Krol2.631211133D. Derevynskyi1.44105110LSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol2.1041111792V. Lobas1.67118311113LSep 11 · 22:35Y. Krol2.101112912102O. Gomilko1.679141110123WSep 11 · 21:05Y. Krol1.301111153O. Melashenko3.4079130WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990
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