TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111820
Played Sep 12Finished
Yan Krol
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
411118113711911
Valentyn Lobas
Away
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:53 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingYan Krol above · Valentyn Lobas below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 9-11
Point 86 set 5, 9-11 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 57.0%
86 points played in total.
H2H Yan Krol 34–37 Valentyn Lobas Yan Krol has won 34 of their 71 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
34-37 in 71
Lobas
Correct
gap of 3 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krol 1565 vs Lobas 1671
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krol 60% vs Lobas 80%
Lobas
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krol 40% vs Lobas 70%
Lobas
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Krol -1 · Lobas +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Lobas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lobas form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrol 2.10 / Lobas 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Lobas)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111820
Krol2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 66 of 151
Down 0–1, comes back28% 26 of 92
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Lobas1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 109 of 175
Up 2–0, closes it94% 60 of 64
Up 1–0, closes it79% 88 of 112
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrol5wins
AwayLobas5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrol100%3 of 3
AwayLobas71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krol3Lobas7n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S2Krol7Lobas3n = 10Krol took 7 of 10
S3Krol4Lobas6n = 10Lobas took 6 of 10
S4Krol5Lobas4n = 9Krol took 5 of 9
S5Krol2Lobas2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrolLobasK − LBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match39.939.8+0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrolLobasBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 586 vs 231 / 40250.5%57.5%296 / 586 vs 231 / 402Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasKrol 2.10/Lobas 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol—41111792V. Lobas—118311113
LSep 6 · 24:05Y. Krol—94111192V. Lobas—111176113
LSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol—1010100V. Lobas—1212123
WAug 29 · 22:35Y. Krol—12119113V. Lobas—1051141
WAug 29 · 24:05Y. Krol—5111111113V. Lobas—11913952
WAug 22 · 22:35Y. Krol—11117113V. Lobas—971171
WAug 22 · 24:05Y. Krol—51111113V. Lobas—118891
LAug 15 · 23:35Y. Krol—911981V. Lobas—11811113
LAug 15 · 24:05Y. Krol—211771V. Lobas—11811113
WAug 9 · 24:05Y. Krol—126119113V. Lobas—101171142
Y. Krol10
LSep 11 · 22:35Y. Krol2.101112912102O. Gomilko1.679141110123WSep 11 · 21:05Y. Krol1.301111153O. Melashenko3.4079130WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.201111113Y. Krol1.616990LSep 5 · 03:05Y. Krol1.571011461K. Hrynenko2.2512511113WSep 5 · 01:35Y. Krol1.2861111123O. Melashenko3.501167101LSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123
V. Lobas10
WSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440WSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123WSep 5 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.508850V. Lobas1.501111113WSep 5 · 24:05Y. Krol1.911010100V. Lobas1.801212123
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