TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116614
Played Sep 13Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 7Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 7
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1161012411811––
Yan Krol
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:13 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Yan Krol below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 57.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 37–34 Yan Krol Yan Krol has won 34 of their 71 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:13What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Lobas
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-34 in 71
Lobas
Wrong
gap of 3 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1705 vs Krol 1605
Lobas
Wrong
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 100% vs Krol 60%
Lobas
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 90% vs Krol 60%
Lobas
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas +5 · Krol -1
Lobas
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Lobas) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Krol form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.67 / Krol 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Lobas)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13116614
Lobas1.67
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 7
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite63% won 114 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it80% 93 of 117
Krol2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog44% won 67 of 154
Down 0–1, comes back28% 26 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas5wins
AwayKrol5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas71.4%5 of 7
AwayKrol100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas7Krol3n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S2Lobas3Krol7n = 10Krol took 7 of 10
S3Lobas6Krol4n = 10Lobas took 6 of 10
S4Lobas4Krol5n = 9Krol took 5 of 9
S5Lobas2Krol2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasKrolL − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match39.839.9−0.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasKrolBasisWin rate · lifetime235 / 406 vs 299 / 58857.9%50.9%235 / 406 vs 299 / 588Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.67/Krol 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Krol won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 24:05V. Lobas44118311113Y. Krol4241111792
WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas46111176113Y. Krol4494111192
WSep 5 · 24:05V. Lobas361212123Y. Krol301010100
LAug 29 · 22:35V. Lobas301051141Y. Krol4312119113
LAug 29 · 24:05V. Lobas4711913952Y. Krol495111111113
LAug 22 · 22:35V. Lobas34971171Y. Krol4011117113
LAug 22 · 24:05V. Lobas36118891Y. Krol3851111113
WAug 15 · 23:35V. Lobas4111811113Y. Krol37911981
WAug 15 · 24:05V. Lobas4111811113Y. Krol27211771
LAug 9 · 24:05V. Lobas43101171142Y. Krol49126119113
V. Lobas10
WSep 12 · 22:35V. Lobas1.361411113O. Melashenko3.0012870WSep 12 · 21:05V. Lobas1.3612117113M. Marchuk3.001061131WSep 12 · 04:05V. Lobas1.831111113O. Gomilko1.839980WSep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.38711991V. Lobas1.5311911113WSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol2.1041111792V. Lobas1.67118311113WSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440WSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192
Y. Krol10
LSep 12 · 23:05Y. Krol1.801161061M. Marchuk1.9161112113WSep 12 · 22:05K. Hrynenko2.108690Y. Krol1.671111113WSep 12 · 03:05Y. Krol1.6711614113K. Hrynenko2.106111281WSep 12 · 01:35Y. Krol2.631211133D. Derevynskyi1.44105110LSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol2.1041111792V. Lobas1.67118311113LSep 11 · 22:35Y. Krol2.101112912102O. Gomilko1.679141110123WSep 11 · 21:05Y. Krol1.301111153O. Melashenko3.4079130WSep 6 · 04:05Y. Krol1.28871111113O. Melashenko3.5011117872WSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123LSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192
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