TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116783
Played Sep 12Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1210116711113––
Maxim Marchuk
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:52 and never touched — 72.8% is still 72.8%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
72.8%
72.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Maxim Marchuk below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Point 71 set 4, 11-3 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 72.8%
71 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 37–16 Maxim Marchuk Maxim Marchuk has won 16 of their 53 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:52What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
37-16 in 53
Lobas
Correct
gap of 21 in 53, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1693 vs Marchuk 1462
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 231 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 100% vs Marchuk 20%
Lobas
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 80% vs Marchuk 20%
Lobas
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas +5 · Marchuk -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Lobas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchuk form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.36 / Marchuk 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Lobas)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116783
Lobas1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 114 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it80% 93 of 117
Marchuk3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 61 of 133
Down 0–1, comes back24% 15 of 63
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas8wins
AwayMarchuk2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLobas leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas100%7 of 7
AwayMarchuk66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas7Marchuk3n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S2Lobas8Marchuk2n = 10Lobas took 8 of 10
S3Lobas7Marchuk3n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S4Lobas1Marchuk3n = 4Marchuk took 3 of 4
S5Lobas3Marchuk1n = 4Lobas took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasMarchukL − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.631.6+6.0per matchSweeps51+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasMarchukBasisWin rate · lifetime233 / 404 vs 220 / 48157.7%45.7%233 / 404 vs 220 / 481Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.36/Marchuk 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.8%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas331111113M. Marchuk259970
WAug 29 · 21:05V. Lobas361411113M. Marchuk2412930
WAug 16 · 02:05V. Lobas341112113M. Marchuk2071030
WAug 9 · 03:05V. Lobas50111198113M. Marchuk3757111132
WAug 1 · 22:35V. Lobas351311113M. Marchuk2911990
WJul 12 · 01:05V. Lobas331111113M. Marchuk134720
WJul 5 · 01:35V. Lobas531110119123M. Marchuk50812911102
LJun 28 · 03:05V. Lobas196670M. Marchuk331111113
LJun 21 · 01:05V. Lobas4191151152M. Marchuk41113115113
WJun 13 · 21:05V. Lobas42411115113M. Marchuk4411861182
V. Lobas10
WSep 12 · 22:35V. Lobas1.361411113O. Melashenko3.0012870WSep 12 · 04:05V. Lobas1.831111113O. Gomilko1.839980WSep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.38711991V. Lobas1.5311911113WSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol2.1041111792V. Lobas1.67118311113WSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440WSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113
M. Marchuk10
LSep 6 · 03:35K. Hrynenko1.7311412113M. Marchuk2.005111061LSep 6 · 02:35O. Melashenko1.6781111113M. Marchuk2.10116771LSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451WSep 5 · 23:05Y. Krol1.831133111M. Marchuk1.8331111133LSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LAug 30 · 03:35O. Melashenko1.67131312113M. Marchuk2.1015111091LAug 30 · 02:35Y. Krol1.73591111113M. Marchuk2.0011119852WAug 30 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.83101160M. Marchuk1.831213113LAug 29 · 23:05K. Hrynenko1.801211123M. Marchuk1.91108100LAug 29 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361411113M. Marchuk3.0012930
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