TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13110949
Played Sep 12Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119118––––
Oleksandr Gomilko
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:43 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Oleksandr Gomilko below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 59 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 33–37 Oleksandr Gomilko Valentyn Lobas has won 33 of their 70 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:43What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Gomilko
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-37 in 70
Gomilko
Wrong
gap of 4 in 70, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1681 vs Gomilko 1630
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 52 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 80% vs Gomilko 80%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 70% vs Gomilko 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas +4 · Gomilko +1
Lobas
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lobas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Gomilko form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.83 / Gomilko 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lobas)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #13110949
Lobas1.83
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
Gomilko1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas4wins
AwayGomilko6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGomilko leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas66.7%2 of 3
AwayGomilko71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas3Gomilko7n = 10Gomilko took 7 of 10
S2Lobas7Gomilko3n = 10Lobas took 7 of 10
S3Lobas3Gomilko7n = 10Gomilko took 7 of 10
S4Lobas3Gomilko4n = 7Gomilko took 4 of 7
S5Lobas2Gomilko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasGomilkoL − GBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.740.1−1.4per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasGomilkoBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 403 vs 322 / 56857.6%56.7%232 / 403 vs 322 / 568Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.83/Gomilko 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas—10118121O. Gomilko—12711143
LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas—69100O. Gomilko—1111123
WAug 30 · 03:05V. Lobas—1111113O. Gomilko—6580
LAug 29 · 04:05V. Lobas—71181372O. Gomilko—1181111113
LAug 23 · 03:05V. Lobas—710130O. Gomilko—1112153
WAug 22 · 04:05V. Lobas—1311117113O. Gomilko—15961182
LAug 16 · 03:05V. Lobas—11116892O. Gomilko—491111113
WAug 15 · 04:05V. Lobas—921111123O. Gomilko—111164102
WAug 8 · 21:05V. Lobas—11128113O. Gomilko—5101181
LAug 1 · 21:05V. Lobas—412921O. Gomilko—111011113
V. Lobas10
WSep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.38711991V. Lobas1.5311911113WSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol2.1041111792V. Lobas1.67118311113WSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440WSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113WSep 5 · 21:05V. Lobas1.361111113M. Marchuk3.009970LSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123
O. Gomilko10
WSep 12 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.8091111113O. Melashenko1.91113771LSep 12 · 24:35D. Derevynskyi2.631111113O. Gomilko1.445760WSep 11 · 22:35Y. Krol2.101112912102O. Gomilko1.679141110123WSep 11 · 21:35K. Hrynenko2.2511101051O. Gomilko1.5781212113WSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143LSep 6 · 02:05O. Gomilko1.6710114101Y. Krol2.1012911123WSep 6 · 01:05O. Gomilko1.7311911113M. Marchuk2.00811451LSep 5 · 23:35O. Gomilko1.61116581K. Hrynenko2.2071111113LSep 5 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.835780O. Melashenko1.831111113WSep 5 · 04:05V. Lobas1.8069100O. Gomilko1.911111123
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