TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13118351
Played Sep 12Finished
Valentyn Lobas
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 6Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 6
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1412118117––––
Oleksandr Melashenko
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:53 and never touched — 73.2% is still 73.2%
Graded at full timeValentyn Lobas to win
73.2%
73.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingValentyn Lobas above · Oleksandr Melashenko below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 63 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Valentyn Lobas at 73.2%
63 points played in total.
H2H Valentyn Lobas 30–14 Oleksandr Melashenko Oleksandr Melashenko has won 14 of their 44 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:53What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Lobas
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-14 in 44
Lobas
Correct
gap of 16 in 44, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lobas 1698 vs Melashenko 1493
Lobas
Correct
both rated, 205 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lobas 100% vs Melashenko 20%
Lobas
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lobas 80% vs Melashenko 20%
Lobas
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lobas +5 · Melashenko -1
Lobas
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Lobas)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Melashenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (33%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLobas 1.36 / Melashenko 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Lobas)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13118351
Lobas1.36
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 6
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite63% won 114 of 180
Up 2–0, closes it94% 63 of 67
Up 1–0, closes it80% 93 of 117
Melashenko3.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 114 of 290
Down 0–1, comes back22% 40 of 179
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 97
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLobas6wins
AwayMelashenko4wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLobas leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLobas75%6 of 8
AwayMelashenkon = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lobas8Melashenko2n = 10Lobas took 8 of 10
S2Lobas5Melashenko5n = 10split evenly
S3Lobas4Melashenko6n = 10Melashenko took 6 of 10
S4Lobas3Melashenko3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLobasMelashenkoL − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.032.1+4.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLobasMelashenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime234 / 405 vs 433 / 85757.8%50.5%234 / 405 vs 433 / 857Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.338.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LobasLobas 1.36/Melashenko 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Lobas · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lobas won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas331111113O. Melashenko135440
LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas2461080O. Melashenko341112113
LSep 4 · 22:05V. Lobas4011109101O. Melashenko4491211123
LAug 30 · 01:35V. Lobas30811741O. Melashenko4011711113
WAug 23 · 24:05V. Lobas341211113O. Melashenko1710340
WAug 21 · 23:05V. Lobas331111113O. Melashenko219840
LAug 15 · 02:05V. Lobas35117981O. Melashenko3521111113
WAug 2 · 03:05V. Lobas4713149113O. Melashenko3611121121
WJul 25 · 01:05V. Lobas50117912113O. Melashenko50911111092
WJul 11 · 23:35V. Lobas44121011113O. Melashenko311012361
V. Lobas10
WSep 12 · 21:05V. Lobas1.3612117113M. Marchuk3.001061131WSep 12 · 04:05V. Lobas1.831111113O. Gomilko1.839980WSep 12 · 02:05K. Hrynenko2.38711991V. Lobas1.5311911113WSep 12 · 24:05Y. Krol2.1041111792V. Lobas1.67118311113WSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440WSep 11 · 22:05D. Derevynskyi2.505970V. Lobas1.501111113LSep 6 · 03:05V. Lobas1.8310118121O. Gomilko1.8312711143WSep 6 · 01:35V. Lobas1.5311113143K. Hrynenko2.384811121WSep 6 · 24:05V. Lobas1.67111176113Y. Krol2.1094111192LSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113
O. Melashenko10
LSep 12 · 21:35O. Gomilko1.831111113O. Melashenko1.836770WSep 12 · 03:35D. Derevynskyi1.571211138102O. Melashenko2.251491111123LSep 12 · 02:35O. Gomilko1.8091111113O. Melashenko1.91113771LSep 12 · 01:05K. Hrynenko1.6161111113O. Melashenko2.20118241LSep 11 · 23:05V. Lobas1.501111113O. Melashenko2.505440LSep 11 · 21:05Y. Krol1.301111153O. Melashenko3.4079130LSep 9 · 19:25S. Khandetskyi1.831111113O. Melashenko1.838950LSep 9 · 18:25O. Melashenko1.5711711782V. Kobets2.25811611113LSep 9 · 17:25O. Melashenko2.0051190S. Skachenko1.731113113WSep 5 · 22:35V. Lobas1.3661080O. Melashenko3.001112113
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