TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111101
Played Sep 12Finished
Roman Cherevko
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181412811115––
Evgeniy Pismenniy
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:12 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Cherevko above · Evgeniy Pismenniy below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 80 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Roman Cherevko at 70.7%
80 points played in total.
H2H Roman Cherevko 161–68 Evgeniy Pismenniy Evgeniy Pismenniy has won 68 of their 229 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:12What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Cherevko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
161-68 in 229
Cherevko
Correct
gap of 93 in 229, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cherevko 1663 vs Pismenniy 1604
Cherevko
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cherevko 40% vs Pismenniy 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cherevko 40% vs Pismenniy 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Cherevko -2 · Pismenniy -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Cherevko) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Cherevko form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCherevko 1.40 / Pismenniy 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Cherevko)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111101
Cherevko1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite64% won 96 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it86% 66 of 77
Pismenniy2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog24% won 61 of 253
Down 0–1, comes back8% 12 of 150
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 94
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCherevko8wins
AwayPismenniy2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderCherevko leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCherevko83.3%5 of 6
AwayPismenniy25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cherevko6Pismenniy4n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S2Cherevko4Pismenniy6n = 10Pismenniy took 6 of 10
S3Cherevko8Pismenniy2n = 10Cherevko took 8 of 10
S4Cherevko5Pismenniy2n = 7Cherevko took 5 of 7
S5Cherevko3Pismenniy1n = 4Cherevko took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricCherevkoPismenniyC − PBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.135.7+4.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCherevkoPismenniyBasisWin rate · lifetime380 / 741 vs 212 / 70851.3%29.9%380 / 741 vs 212 / 708Avg sets wonper match2.01.6per matchAvg pointsper match38.636.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoCherevko 1.40/Pismenniy 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
68.7%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Cherevko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 16:55R. Cherevko—11611652E. Pismenniy—511511113
WSep 5 · 18:55R. Cherevko—11511113E. Pismenniy—711691
WSep 4 · 21:55R. Cherevko—1091111113E. Pismenniy—12113792
WAug 29 · 16:55R. Cherevko—9101111183E. Pismenniy—111289162
WAug 28 · 22:55R. Cherevko—12114113E. Pismenniy—1091171
WAug 23 · 14:25R. Cherevko—1112113E. Pismenniy—51020
WAug 22 · 16:55R. Cherevko—6121110113E. Pismenniy—111061272
LAug 22 · 01:25R. Cherevko—6590E. Pismenniy—1111113
WAug 15 · 14:25R. Cherevko—1111113E. Pismenniy—7790
WAug 15 · 01:25R. Cherevko—11511113E. Pismenniy—211951
R. Cherevko10
WSep 12 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.40910100R. Cherevko2.751112123LSep 12 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.3881190Y. Masko1.531113113LSep 11 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.808990V. Melnik1.911111113WSep 11 · 21:55R. Cherevko1.5710121111113R. Reznychenko2.2512146982WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko1.676111071R. Reznychenko2.1011712113LSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652LSep 6 · 14:55D. Neborak2.501981311113R. Cherevko1.50171115532LSep 6 · 13:55V. Melnik1.801191173R. Cherevko1.91911921WSep 5 · 19:55R. Reznychenko2.10511371R. Cherevko1.6711711113
E. Pismenniy10
LSep 12 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin1.1191211113E. Pismenniy6.001110981LSep 11 · 23:25E. Pismenniy3.00101151142Y. Masko1.36129118113WSep 11 · 22:25V. Melnik1.44134111142E. Pismenniy2.63151159113WSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950LSep 6 · 17:55D. Neborak1.256111411113E. Pismenniy3.7511816992WSep 6 · 16:55E. Pismenniy2.50511511113R. Cherevko1.5011611652WSep 6 · 15:55V. Melnik1.5310860E. Pismenniy2.381211113WSep 6 · 14:25E. Pismenniy2.5011111082Y. Masko1.50691281LSep 5 · 20:25D. Neborak1.361112113E. Pismenniy3.0021080LSep 5 · 18:55E. Pismenniy2.63711691R. Cherevko1.4411511113
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