TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111108
Played Sep 11Finished
Roman Cherevko
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
10121214116119118
Roman Reznychenko
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:13 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeRoman Cherevko to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRoman Cherevko above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 104 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Roman Cherevko at 62.1%
104 points played in total.
H2H Roman Cherevko 130–106 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 106 of their 236 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:13What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Cherevko
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
130-106 in 236
Cherevko
Correct
gap of 24 in 236, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Cherevko 1679 vs Reznychenko 1516
Cherevko
Correct
both rated, 163 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Cherevko 20% vs Reznychenko 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Cherevko 50% vs Reznychenko 20%
Cherevko
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Cherevko +1 · Reznychenko -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Cherevko)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsCherevko 1.57 / Reznychenko 2.25
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Cherevko)+3.6pp
Setka Cup · #13111108
Cherevko1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite64% won 96 of 150
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it86% 66 of 77
Reznychenko2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog32% won 95 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back13% 22 of 176
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 121
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeCherevko5wins
AwayReznychenko5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeCherevko66.7%4 of 6
AwayReznychenko75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Cherevko6Reznychenko4n = 10Cherevko took 6 of 10
S2Cherevko4Reznychenko6n = 10Reznychenko took 6 of 10
S3Cherevko5Reznychenko5n = 10split evenly
S4Cherevko6Reznychenko3n = 9Cherevko took 6 of 9
S5Cherevko1Reznychenko2n = 3Reznychenko took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricCherevkoReznychenkoC − RBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.738.2+3.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricCherevkoReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime379 / 738 vs 234 / 71951.4%32.6%379 / 738 vs 234 / 719Avg sets wonper match2.01.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.733.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CherevkoCherevko 1.57/Reznychenko 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.5%
Cherevko · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Cherevko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 21:55R. Cherevko5510121111113R. Reznychenko4912146982
LSep 6 · 18:55R. Cherevko346111071R. Reznychenko4111712113
WSep 5 · 19:55R. Cherevko4011711113R. Reznychenko26511371
WSep 5 · 04:25R. Cherevko341211113R. Reznychenko2310850
LAug 29 · 20:25R. Cherevko4011910101R. Reznychenko4271112123
LAug 29 · 03:25R. Cherevko47117611122R. Reznychenko48911113143
WAug 23 · 15:25R. Cherevko4211911113R. Reznychenko34911951
LAug 22 · 19:55R. Cherevko49109111182R. Reznychenko44121146113
WAug 21 · 21:55R. Cherevko4212118113R. Reznychenko351071171
LAug 15 · 15:25R. Cherevko34511991R. Reznychenko4011711113
R. Cherevko10
LSep 12 · 20:25R. Cherevko3.259880A. Tuzhylin1.331111113LSep 12 · 18:25V. Melnik1.9181112113R. Cherevko1.801191091WSep 12 · 16:25E. Pismenniy2.6311711372R. Cherevko1.44811911113LSep 12 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.6180R. Reznychenko2.20111WSep 12 · 14:25Y. Masko1.671113971R. Cherevko2.10131111113WSep 12 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.40910100R. Cherevko2.751112123WSep 12 · 02:25R. Cherevko1.4011148113E. Pismenniy2.758121151LSep 12 · 01:25R. Cherevko2.3881190Y. Masko1.531113113LSep 11 · 23:55R. Cherevko1.808990V. Melnik1.911111113WSep 6 · 20:25Y. Masko1.679670R. Cherevko2.101111113
R. Reznychenko10
WSep 12 · 19:55Y. Masko1.308111061R. Reznychenko3.4011412113WSep 12 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin1.109680R. Reznychenko6.501111103WSep 12 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3391161182R. Reznychenko3.25119119113WSep 12 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.6180R. Reznychenko2.20111LSep 12 · 13:25E. Pismenniy1.809121111113R. Reznychenko1.9111148572LSep 12 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.8091211113R. Reznychenko1.911110691WSep 12 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.2513611143Y. Masko1.3311119121LSep 12 · 24:55V. Melnik1.3311117113R. Reznychenko3.25571151LSep 11 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin1.1091111113R. Reznychenko6.50115791LSep 6 · 19:55E. Pismenniy1.671111113R. Reznychenko2.107950
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