TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117746
Played Sep 12Finished
Alexander Tuzhylin
Home
1.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911611810––––
Roman Reznychenko
Away
6.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:02 and never touched — 89.3% is still 89.3%
Graded at full timeAlexander Tuzhylin to win
89.3%
89.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAlexander Tuzhylin above · Roman Reznychenko below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 8-10
Point 55 set 3, 8-10 — our read held Alexander Tuzhylin at 89.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Alexander Tuzhylin 194–21 Roman Reznychenko Roman Reznychenko has won 21 of their 215 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 24:02What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.10 (86%)
Tuzhylin
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
194-21 in 215
Tuzhylin
Wrong
gap of 173 in 215, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tuzhylin 1840 vs Reznychenko 1613
Tuzhylin
Wrong
both rated, 227 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tuzhylin 80% vs Reznychenko 60%
Tuzhylin
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tuzhylin 80% vs Reznychenko 40%
Tuzhylin
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tuzhylin +3 · Reznychenko +2
Tuzhylin
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 89% — Strong (leans Tuzhylin)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Reznychenko form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (15%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTuzhylin 1.10 / Reznychenko 6.50
Signal prob.89% / 11%
Edge (Tuzhylin)+3.8pp
Setka Cup · #13117746
Tuzhylin1.10
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite74% won 197 of 265
Up 2–0, closes it98% 123 of 125
Up 1–0, closes it89% 145 of 163
Reznychenko6.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog32% won 95 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back13% 22 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back1% 1 of 120
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeTuzhylin9wins
AwayReznychenko1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderTuzhylin leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTuzhylin100%5 of 5
AwayReznychenko20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tuzhylin5Reznychenko5n = 10split evenly
S2Tuzhylin9Reznychenko1n = 10Tuzhylin took 9 of 10
S3Tuzhylin6Reznychenko4n = 10Tuzhylin took 6 of 10
S4Tuzhylin6Reznychenko0n = 6Tuzhylin took 6 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricTuzhylinReznychenkoT − RBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.530.8+7.7per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTuzhylinReznychenkoBasisWin rate · lifetime503 / 662 vs 239 / 72776%32.9%503 / 662 vs 239 / 727Avg sets wonper match2.51.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.733.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TuzhylinTuzhylin 1.10/Reznychenko 6.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
89.3%
Tuzhylin · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Reznychenko won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin239680R. Reznychenko321111103
WSep 11 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin4291111113R. Reznychenko32115791
WSep 5 · 17:55A. Tuzhylin3911116113R. Reznychenko32781161
WSep 5 · 24:25A. Tuzhylin341112113R. Reznychenko2681080
WAug 29 · 16:25A. Tuzhylin4071111113R. Reznychenko34116981
WAug 29 · 02:25A. Tuzhylin43111110113R. Reznychenko33481291
WAug 21 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin361111143R. Reznychenko2466120
WAug 15 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin331111113R. Reznychenko186750
WAug 14 · 22:55A. Tuzhylin4391111123R. Reznychenko341167101
WAug 9 · 18:55A. Tuzhylin529111011113R. Reznychenko4311412882
A. Tuzhylin10
LSep 13 · 20:25A. Tuzhylin1.449690Y. Masko2.631111113LSep 13 · 18:25V. Melnik2.101111113A. Tuzhylin1.675880WSep 13 · 16:25R. Reznychenko6.005780A. Tuzhylin1.111111113LSep 13 · 15:25A. Tuzhylin1.44611121192R. Cherevko2.63117146113WSep 13 · 14:25E. Pismenniy6.00101340A. Tuzhylin1.11121583WSep 12 · 20:25R. Cherevko3.259880A. Tuzhylin1.331111113WSep 12 · 16:55Y. Masko3.007860A. Tuzhylin1.361111113WSep 12 · 14:55E. Pismenniy6.0090A. Tuzhylin1.11101WSep 12 · 13:55V. Melnik2.106720A. Tuzhylin1.67111153LSep 12 · 03:25A. Tuzhylin1.40910100R. Cherevko2.751112123
R. Reznychenko10
LSep 13 · 19:25R. Reznychenko3.00104100V. Melnik1.361211123LSep 13 · 16:25R. Reznychenko6.005780A. Tuzhylin1.111111113LSep 13 · 14:55R. Reznychenko3.25670Y. Masko1.3311112LSep 13 · 13:25R. Reznychenko2.38471581R. Cherevko1.53111113113WSep 12 · 19:55Y. Masko1.308111061R. Reznychenko3.4011412113WSep 12 · 17:25V. Melnik1.3391161182R. Reznychenko3.25119119113WSep 12 · 15:25R. Cherevko1.6180R. Reznychenko2.20111LSep 12 · 13:25E. Pismenniy1.809121111113R. Reznychenko1.9111148572LSep 12 · 04:25E. Pismenniy1.8091211113R. Reznychenko1.911110691WSep 12 · 02:55R. Reznychenko3.2513611143Y. Masko1.3311119121
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